More than 200,000 boys play high school basketball, with only 5% (just over 4,000) playing D1 in college. Even the best of those 4,000 in the Value Add database (Delon Wright) has just a 63% chance at the NBA.

The new ratings at www.valueaddbasketball.com include the chance each player has at making the NBA, and below we list anyone with at least a 15% chance at the NBA – all the way down to 2336th ranked Thomas Welsh (see photo by Mark J. Terrill/AP).

Rnk Player, Jersey Team Ht Yr Value Add NBA?
1 Wright, Delon 55 Utah 6’5″ Sr 12.73 63%
2 Cauley-Stein, Willie 15 Kentucky 7’0 Jr 10.73 89%
3 Payton, Gary 1 Oregon St. 6’3″ Jr 10.08 40%
4 Caffey, Michael 5 Long Beach St. 6’0 Sr 9.61 15%
5 Walden, Corey 2 Eastern Kentucky 6’2″ Sr 9.55 15%
6 Kaminsky, Frank 44 Wisconsin 7’0 Sr 9.48 79%
7 Pangos, Kevin 4 Gonzaga 6’2″ Sr 9.39 34%
8 Grant, Jerian 22 Notre Dame 6’5″ Sr 9.13 57%
9 Towns, Karl-Anthony 12 Kentucky 6’11” Fr 8.88 93%
10 Booker, Devin 1 Kentucky 6’6″ Fr 8.76 86%
11 Anderson, Justin 1 Virginia 6’6″ Jr 8.49 58%
12 Van Vleet, Fred 23 Wichita St. 6’0 Jr 8.49 33%
13 White, Aaron 30 Iowa 6’9″ Sr 8.43 43%
14 Pointer, Sir’Dominic 15 St. John’s 6’6″ Sr 8.42 13%
15 Randolph, Levi 20 Alabama 6’5″ Sr 8.36 29%
16 Hewitt, Jelani 5 Georgia Southern 6’2″ Sr 8.34 13%
17 Smith-Rivera, D’Vauntes 4 Georgetown 6’3″ Jr 8.31 24%
18 Russell, D’Angelo 0 Ohio St. 6’5″ Fr 8.24 92%
19 Payne, Cameron 1 Murray St. 6’2″ So 8.19 36%
20 Rozier, Terry 0 Louisville 6’1″ So 8.11 44%
21 Okafor, Jahlil 15 Duke 6’11” Fr 8.05 94%
22 Forte, Phil 13 Oklahoma St. 5’11” Jr 8.01 17%
23 Weber, Briante 2 VCU 6’2″ Sr 7.93 27%
24 Ulis, Tyler 3 Kentucky 5’9″ Fr 7.91 35%
25 Baker, Ron 31 Wichita St. 6’4″ Jr 7.86 32%
26 Harrison, Aaron 2 Kentucky 6’6″ So 7.80 29%
27 Mockevicius, Egidijus 55 Evansville 6’10” Jr 7.79 21%
28 Hawkins, Corey 3 UC Davis 6’3″ Sr 7.67 12%
29 Christmas, Rakeem 25 Syracuse 6’9″ Sr 7.54 23%
30 Mason, Frank 0 Kansas 5’11” So 7.51 21%
31 Tarpey, Terry 25 William & Mary 6’5″ Jr 7.51 13%
32 Warney, Jameel 20 Stony Brook 6’8″ Jr 7.49 19%
33 Gibbs, Jack 12 Davidson 5’11” So 7.47 21%
34 Johnson, Dakari 44 Kentucky 7’0 So 7.46 48%
35 Frazier, J.J. 30 Georgia 5’10” So 7.44 21%
36 McKinney, Mikh 10 Sacramento St. 6’1″ Sr 7.44 11%
37 Lee, Damion 14 Drexel 6’6″ Jr 7.44 13%
38 Gill, Anthony 13 Virginia 6’8″ Jr 7.43 15%
39 Brogdon, Malcolm 15 Virginia 6’5″ Jr 7.42 16%
40 Boatright, Ryan 11 Connecticut 6’0 Sr 7.41 17%
41 Wiltjer, Kyle 33 Gonzaga 6’10” Jr 7.40 20%
42 Martin, Hassan 12 Rhode Island 6’7″ So 7.26 20%
43 Hield, Buddy 24 Oklahoma 6’4″ Jr 7.24 29%
44 Jones, Tyus 5 Duke 6’1″ Fr 7.22 60%
45 Randle, Chasson 5 Stanford 6’2″ Sr 7.21 18%
46 Haws, Tyler 3 BYU 6’5″ Sr 7.21 16%
47 Tuttle, Seth 10 Northern Iowa 6’8″ Sr 7.21 10%
48 Henton, LaDontae 23 Providence 6’6″ Sr 7.19 10%
49 Collinsworth, Kyle 5 BYU 6’6″ Jr 7.18 12%
50 Marks, Derrick 2 Boise St. 6’3″ Sr 7.18 10%
51 Harvey, Tyler 1 Eastern Washington 6’4″ Jr 7.16 16%
52 Turner, Myles 52 Texas 6’11” Fr 7.15 81%
53 Meeks, Kennedy 3 North Carolina 6’9″ So 7.14 41%
54 Hayes, Nigel 10 Wisconsin 6’8″ So 7.09 28%
56 Sykes, Keifer 24 Green Bay 6’0 Sr 7.03 27%
58 Nance, Larry 22 Wyoming 6’8″ Sr 7.01 20%
60 Richardson, Josh 1 Tennessee 6’6″ Sr 6.94 15%
61 Morris, Monte 11 Iowa St. 6’2″ So 6.89 26%
64 Rice, Rayvonte 24 Illinois 6’4″ Sr 6.83 21%
65 Trimble, Melo 2 Maryland 6’3″ Fr 6.83 15%
66 Dunn, Kris 3 Providence 6’3″ So 6.82 28%
67 Harrell, Montrezl 24 Louisville 6’8″ Jr 6.80 69%
68 Woodley, Zikiteran 23 Northwestern St. 6’2″ So 6.77 19%
69 Lyles, Trey 41 Kentucky 6’10” Fr 6.77 73%
70 Johnson, Stanley 5 Arizona 6’6″ Fr 6.76 90%
71 Layman, Jake 10 Maryland 6’9″ Jr 6.74 52%
72 Jackson, Demetrius 11 Notre Dame 6’1″ So 6.73 30%
73 Gathers, Rico 2 Baylor 6’8″ Jr 6.68 26%
74 Graham, Treveon 21 VCU 6’6″ Sr 6.68 23%
75 Brown, Anthony 21 Stanford 6’6″ Sr 6.68 32%
76 Yogi Ferrell, Kevin 11 Indiana 6’0 Jr 6.64 34%
82 Cook, Quinn 2 Duke 6’2″ Sr 6.48 19%
84 Peters, Alec 25 Valparaiso 6’9″ So 6.43 18%
86 Garino, Patricio 13 George Washington 6’6″ So 6.42 26%
88 Harris, Marvelle 23 Fresno St. 6’4″ Jr 6.38 16%
92 Robinson, Justin 12 Monmouth 5’8″ So 6.32 17%
94 Carlino, Matt 13 Marquette 6’2″ Sr 6.30 15%
97 Blackshear, Wayne 25 Louisville 6’5″ Sr 6.27 22%
99 Hilliard, Darrun 4 Villanova 6’6″ Sr 6.21 20%
102 Caupain, Troy 10 Cincinnati 6’3″ So 6.19 24%
105 Brimah, Amida 35 Connecticut 7’0 So 6.15 46%
107 Frazier, Michael 20 Florida 6’4″ Jr 6.15 29%
109 Paige, Marcus 5 North Carolina 6’1″ Jr 6.15 30%
110 Anderson, Kyan 5 TCU 5’11” Sr 6.14 17%
111 Wills, Dre 24 Vermont 6’1″ So 6.14 16%
113 Saunders, Wesley 23 Harvard 6’5″ Sr 6.13 23%
115 Looney, Kevon 5 UCLA 6’9″ Fr 6.09 85%
116 Portis, Bobby 10 Arkansas 6’11” So 6.07 67%
117 Caruso, Alex 21 Texas A&M 6’5″ Jr 6.06 24%
119 Denny, Zack 4 Bowling Green 6’2″ So 6.02 16%
122 Hunter, R.J. 22 Georgia St. 6’6″ Jr 5.99 53%
125 Baldwin, Wade 4 Vanderbilt 6’3″ Fr 5.94 16%
126 Hollis-Jefferson, Rondae 23 Arizona 6’7″ So 5.93 61%
128 Moore, Jalen 14 Utah St. 6’8″ So 5.92 15%
133 Bembry, DeAndre 43 Saint Joseph’s 6’6″ So 5.74 19%
134 Harrison, Andrew 5 Kentucky 6’6″ So 5.72 30%
137 Martin, Jarell 1 Temple 6’10” So 5.70 31%
141 Upshaw, Robert 24 Washington 6’11” So 5.62 75%
142 Scott, Josh 40 Colorado 6’10” Jr 5.62 28%
144 Williams, Alan 15 UC Santa Barbara 6’8″ Sr 5.59 27%
149 Hawkinson, Josh 24 Washington St. 6’10” So 5.52 15%
153 Webb, James 23 Boise St. 6’9″ So 5.49 20%
154 Holmes, Jonathan 10 Texas 6’8″ Sr 5.45 30%
159 Mickey, Jordan 25 LSU 6’8″ So 5.42 29%
163 Ellis, Perry 34 Kansas 6’8″ Jr 5.37 27%
164 Qualls, Michael 24 Arkansas 6’6″ Jr 5.36 30%
165 Johnson, Brice 11 North Carolina 6’9″ Jr 5.34 32%
168 Smith, Joshua 24 Georgetown 6’10” Sr 5.31 28%
174 Staten, Juwan 3 West Virginia 6’1″ Sr 5.26 28%
177 Scott, Shannon 3 Ohio St. 6’1″ Sr 5.22 31%
179 Jones, Damian 30 Vanderbilt 6’10” So 5.19 38%
184 Young, Joseph 3 Oregon 6’2″ Sr 5.10 23%
188 Nichols, Austin 4 Memphis 6’8″ So 5.05 22%
194 Delgado, Angel 31 Seton Hall 6’9″ Fr 4.94 16%
196 Williams-Goss, Nigel 5 Washington 6’3″ So 4.92 29%
199 Dejean-Jones, Bryce 13 Iowa St. 6’6″ Sr 4.88 17%
202 Sabonis, Domantas 11 Gonzaga 6’10” Fr 4.86 31%
203 LeVert, Caris 23 Michigan 6’7″ Jr 4.85 56%
205 Jefferson, Amile 21 Duke 6’9″ Jr 4.83 17%
206 Dekker, Sam 15 Wisconsin 6’9″ Jr 4.81 71%
207 Cummings, Will 2 Temple 6’2″ Sr 4.81 21%
211 Hunter, Vince 32 UTEP 6’8″ So 4.77 21%
215 Sibert, Jordan 24 Dayton 6’4″ Sr 4.75 20%
220 Tobey, Mike 10 Virginia 7’0 Jr 4.72 26%
223 Valentine, Denzel 45 Michigan St. 6’5″ Jr 4.70 16%
227 Powell, Norman 4 UCLA 6’4″ Sr 4.65 31%
228 Nash, Le’Bryan 2 Oklahoma St. 6’7″ Jr 4.65 23%
233 Alexander, Cliff 2 Kansas 6’8″ Fr 4.62 65%
238 Blackmon, James 1 Indiana 6’4″ Fr 4.58 32%
240 Oubre, Kelly 12 Kansas 6’7″ Fr 4.56 77%
250 Williams, Troy 5 Indiana 6’7″ So 4.48 25%
256 Obekpa, Chris 12 St. John’s 6’10” Jr 4.45 29%
267 Wood, Christian 5 UNLV 6’11” So 4.38 53%
269 Bluiett, Trevon 5 Xavier 6’6″ Fr 4.37 21%
273 Harrow, Ryan 55 Georgia St. 6’2″ Sr 4.33 18%
275 Finney-Smith, Dorian 10 Florida 6’8″ Jr 4.31 15%
294 Jackson, Justin 44 North Carolina 6’8″ Fr 4.17 32%
295 Thompson, Sam 12 Ohio St. 6’7″ Sr 4.16 23%
308 Auguste, Zach 30 Notre Dame 6’10” Jr 4.10 19%
321 Karnowski, Przemek 24 Gonzaga 7’1″ Jr 4.02 20%
334 Petteway, Terran 5 Nebraska 6’6″ Jr 3.96 28%
344 Poeltl, Jakob 42 Utah 7’0 Fr 3.92 59%
358 Tokoto, J.P. 13 North Carolina 6’6″ Jr 3.83 24%
368 Olaseni, Gabriel 0 Iowa 6’10” Sr 3.77 15%
379 Dawson, Branden 22 Michigan St. 6’6″ Sr 3.69 17%
381 Davis, Dee 11 Xavier 6’0 3.68 73%
385 Wallace, Tyrone 3 California 6’5″ Jr 3.67 36%
396 Summers, Jarvis 32 Mississippi 6’3″ Sr 3.61 16%
397 Ashley, Brandon 21 Arizona 6’8″ Jr 3.61 19%
407 Thomas, TaShawn 35 Oklahoma 6’8″ Sr 3.56 16%
413 Long, Shawn 21 Louisiana Lafayette 6’9″ Jr 3.55 29%
457 Hollins, Andre 1 Minnesota 6’2″ Sr 3.32 16%
475 Vaughn, Rashad 1 UNLV 6’6″ Fr 3.25 42%
481 Foster, Marcus 2 Kansas St. 6’3″ So 3.23 20%
507 Jordan, Rysheed 23 St. John’s 6’4″ So 3.14 15%
517 Taylor, Isaiah 1 Texas 6’1″ So 3.10 19%
524 Winslow, Justise 12 Duke 6’6″ Fr 3.08 82%
558 McLaughlin, Jordan 11 USC 6’1″ Fr 2.99 15%
582 Hamilton, Daniel 5 Connecticut 6’7″ Fr 2.90 22%
598 Wells, Dez 44 Maryland 6’5″ Sr 2.84 16%
614 Niang, Georges 31 Iowa St. 6’8″ Jr 2.80 16%
652 Lee, Marcus 0 Kentucky 6’9″ So 2.68 16%
665 Ridley, Cameron 55 Texas 6’9″ Jr 2.64 16%
682 McCullough, Chris 5 Syracuse 6’10” Fr 2.58 32%
685 Whitehead, Isaiah 15 Seton Hall 6’4″ Fr 2.57 24%
764 Sulaimon, Rasheed 14 Duke 6’5″ Jr 2.38 15%
815 Pinson, Theo 1 North Carolina 6’6″ Fr 2.28 25%
817 Brooks, Dillon 24 Oregon 6’5″ Fr 2.27 21%
827 Matthews, E.C. 0 Rhode Island 6’5″ So 2.24 22%
828 Onuaku, Chinanu 32 Louisville 6’10” Fr 2.23 19%
893 Irvin, Zak 21 Michigan 6’6″ So 2.09 15%
918 Hill, Kasey 0 Florida 6’1″ So 2.04 15%
989 Martin, Caleb 14 North Carolina St. 6’7″ Fr 1.93 17%
1011 Bates-Diop, Keita 33 Ohio St. 6’7″ Fr 1.90 16%
1035 Copeland, Isaac 11 Georgetown 6’9″ Fr 1.86 18%
1062 Selden, Wayne 1 Kansas 6’5″ So 1.80 15%
1424 Robinson, Devin 3 Florida 6’8″ Fr 1.35 25%
1597 Allen, Grayson 3 Duke 6’4″ Fr 1.15 21%
1713 Kingsley, Moses 33 Arkansas 6’10” Fr 1.06 24%
1806 Chukwu, Paschal 13 Providence 7’2″ Fr 0.97 20%
1898 Pope, Malik 21 San Diego St. 6’10” Fr 0.85 21%
1952 Haas, Isaac 44 Purdue 7’2″ Fr 0.80 22%
1988 Walker, Chris 23 Florida 6’10” So 0.78 18%
2003 Travis, Reid 22 Stanford 6’8″ Fr 0.76 19%
2138 Burton, Deonte 30 Marquette 6’4″ So 0.64 16%
2157 Mykhailiuk, Sviatoslav 10 Kansas 6’8″ Fr 0.63 25%
2178 Ristic, Dusan 14 Arizona 7’0 Fr 0.61 20%
2209 Victor, Craig 3 Arizona 6’7″ Fr 0.58 15%
2260 Bird, Jabari 23 California 6’6″ So 0.53 19%
2336 Welsh, Thomas 40 UCLA 7’0 Fr 0.48 18%

Value Add ranks players based on how many points they are worth to their college teams, and any freshman worth 3.0 points or more should be watched because the Value often more than doubles by their sophomore year. It is rare for a college senior to make the NBA, so in general a senior with a 6.0 Value Add has a much lower chance of making the NBA than a freshman.

The players with an 80% or higher ratings are pretty-sure NBA players–but we leave the percentage there to account for the risk of injury.

This is why the 4.67 that Hassan Whiteside achieved as a freshman in 2010 (click for all-time database) made him appear such a strong NBA prospect five years before he erupted on ABC this weekend. In addition to the college Value, “NBA Factors” are incorporated into Value Add’s chance of a player making the NBA, so the length, shot-blocking, and defensive rebounding of Welsh, the freshman 7-footer, gives him a chance at the NBA even though so far this season he has been worth less than half a point to UCLA.

The database has been updated to show the chance each player has at the NBA.

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