Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is threatening to “burn” any oil tanker that attempts to sail through the Strait of Hormuz and, according to a warning from the Windward AI maritime research firm, the Iranians are conducting “indiscriminate” attacks on civilian ships in the Gulf of Oman and Persian Gulf.

“Analysis of vessel affiliations, targeting patterns, and cargo data points to a strategy of indiscriminate area denial – not precision targeting – aimed at demonstrating Iran’s capability to disrupt the Strait and deter commercial shipping,” Windward AI said in its advisory.

Windward pointed to Sunday’s attack on the Palau-flagged tanker Skylight as a troubling sign of Iran’s recklessness and desperation. The Skylight was roughly 5 nautical miles off Oman’s Musandam peninsula, near the Strait of Hormuz, when it was hit by what appears to have been an exploding drone and caught fire.

According to Oman’s Maritime Security Center, the tanker’s crew of 20 was evacuated after the attack, with four serious injuries reported. 15 members of the crew were Indian, while the other five were Iranian nationals – and the ship itself has been under U.S. Treasury Department sanctions since December 2025 for belonging to the “shadow fleet” Iran uses to sell sanctioned oil to illicit customers.

Windward noted that the Skylight is operated by a company based in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) called Red Sea Ship Management LLC, which is in turn linked to the Iranian Ministry of Defense.

“The Skylight anomaly – striking a vessel with an Iranian crew, Iranian operational ties, and active OFAC sanctions – is the single strongest piece of evidence against deliberate targeting by affiliation,” Windward said.

Three other tankers have been attacked since the Skylight, including the Marshall Islands-flagged crude oil tanker MKD VYOM, which reported a fatality after being attacked by what appears to have been a drone boat off the coast of Oman. The slain crewman was reportedly an Indian national.

“The vessel suffered an explosion and subsequent fire after being struck. It is with great sadness that we confirm one crew member, who was in the engine room at the time of the incident, has died,” management company V.Ships Asia said.

IRGC spokesman Brig. Gen. Ebrahim Jabbari said on Monday that the Strait of Hormuz is “closed,” and “not one drop of oil will be allowed to leave the region.”

Jabbari said any ship attempting to sail through the strategically vital waterway will “burn.” He predicted Iran’s economic warfare would quickly raise worldwide oil prices to over $200 per barrel.

None of the world’s maritime authorities has actually issued a formal notice of closure for the Strait of Hormuz, but insurance costs for ships in the region are skyrocketing, and shipping lines are halting or rerouting their vessels until the safety of the strait can be assured.

EuroNews reported on Monday:

Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd and CMA CGM each announced the suspension of all vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz until further notice, directing ships in or heading to the Persian Gulf to safe anchorages and rerouting many services around the Cape of Good Hope while also pausing Suez passages.

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Japanese lines NYK, Mitsui O.S.K. Lines and Kawasaki Kisen similarly halted all Hormuz operations, with vessels standing by or anchored in safe waters outside the strait since Saturday night.

Tracking data showed that around 200 vessels have halted around the Strait of Hormuz, putting about 20 percent of the global supply of oil and LNG at risk. The UK Guardian reported on Tuesday that some tankers are “considering turning off their tracking transponders and risking a transit at night, even though they may not be insured.”

The Guardian noted that the hit to oil and LNG supplies is not evenly distributed around the world: “While countries in the Americas import 12.5% of their oil via the strait, the proportion rises to 45.7% for China, according to data agency Kpler.”

President Donald Trump announced on Tuesday via his Truth Social platform that he has “ordered the United States Development Finance Corporation (DFC) to provide, at a very reasonable price, political risk insurance and guarantees for the Financial Security of ALL Maritime Trade, especially Energy, traveling through the Gulf.”

“If necessary, the United States Navy will begin escorting tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, as soon as possible,” he added. “No matter what, the United States will ensure the FREE FLOW of ENERGY to the WORLD.”