This morning’s key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Egyptian protesters demand end to ties with Iran and ‘Shia Islam’
- Cuba’s Fidel Castro warns North Korea not to start a war
- Labor participation rate continues to fall
Egyptian protesters demand end to ties with Iran and ‘Shia Islam’
Egyptian protesters raise their shoes outside the Iranian ambassador’s residence in Cairo (AFP)
Sunni Muslim Egyptian protesters from the Salafist al-Nour party andother Salafist parties are launching campaigns against the steps takenby Muslim Brotherhood president Mohamed Morsi to reach a rapprochementwith Shia Muslim Iran. The most frequent chants from the protesterswere “Egypt will not become Shia, oh ambassador of Iran,” and “Listen,Muslim Brotherhood, we do not want relations with Iran.” Theprotesters are demanding that bilateral agreements between the twocountries be revoked, and that Iranian tourism to Egypt be rejected.The Salafists are also planning to hold seminars to educate citizensabout the “danger of Shias.”
Sunni versus Shia enmity is increasing throughout the Mideast,especially propelled by the conflict in Syria. The new protestsrepresent a new split between Egypt’s two major Islamist groups, thethese two groups have been growing anyway as Egypt’s economy hastanked, but the anti-Shia protests are an important development.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the Mideast is headedfor a major regional war pitting Sunni Muslims against Shia Muslimsand Jews against Arabs.
This story is interesting because it illustrates one of the techniquesof Generational Dynamics forecasting. Most media would ignore thisstory as unimportant. But once you know from Generational Dynamicsthat the long-term trend is an increase in Sunni-Shia belligerence,eventually leading to all out war, then you know that a story aboutSunni protesters against Shia rapprochement has the potential to behighly significant. Al-Bawaba (Jordan) and Egypt Independent
Cuba’s Fidel Castro warns North Korea not to start a war
Cuba’s former dictator Fidel Castro, now 86, is no longer theyoung revolutionary he once was, and appears to have mellowed,if we’re to judge by his advice to another young dictator,Kim Jong-un of North Korea:
“Do not confuse the existence of intelligent life withthe existence of life, from their elementary forms in our solarsystem emerged millions of years ago. …
This introduction would be too long if it was not to explain theseverity of an event so incredible and absurd as is the situationcreated in the Korean peninsula, in an area where there are nearly5 billion of 7 billion people that currently inhabit theplanet. …
I was honored to meet Kim Il Sung, a historical figure, remarkablybrave and revolutionary.
If war breaks out there, people on both sides of the Peninsulawill be terribly slaughtered, with no benefit to any of them. TheRepublic of Korea was always friendly with Cuba, and Cuba hasalways been and will remain with it.
Now that has demonstrated its technical and scientific progress,we remind her duties with the countries that have been his greatfriends, and it would be unfair to forget that such special waywar would affect more than 70% of the planet’s population.
If there is a conflict erupted such, the Government of BarackObama in his second term would be buried by a deluge of imagesthat would present the most sinister character in Americanhistory. The duty to avoid this is also his and the Americanpeople.”
Apparently Castro’s remarks have made no impression on North Korea’schild dictator, as he continues to threaten war and paint himself intoa corner. Granma (Havana) (Trans)
Labor participation rate continues to fall
Labor Participation Rate, 1948-present (St. Louis Fed)
Friday’s disastrous jobs report showed that only 88,000 jobswere created in March, well below the several hundred thousandthat are needed just to keep up with population growth. At thesame time, the unemployment rate fell slightly. The explanationfor these seemingly conflicting stats is that some 500,000 peopleleft the workforce — and not just retiring Boomers either. Over3/4 of those leaving the work force were under age 55, indicatingthat a lot of people are simply giving up the search for work.
The interesting issue is how to interpret that above graph,which shows the Labor Participation Rate since the end ofWorld War II. Here is my explanation:
- The labor force participation rate began to take off in the 1960-70s. This was the time when all the new businesses that had been born during the Great Depression years reached their peak of inventiveness and growth, resulting in sharp wage inflation and huge demand for workers at all skill levels. This pulled more and more people into the work force.
- The rate leveled off starting in the late 1980s. At this time, the increased power of labor unions was making companies less efficient and less willing to hire, while increases in welfare payments and other transfers made it more lucrative for many people to stay at home, rather than work.
- The rate began to fall in the early 2000s. This was the time when thousands of manufacturing firms were shutting down because goods could be purchased more cheaply from China. Businesses that had been innovative in the 1970s were now bogged down in bureaucracy and labor union contracts, making it even more difficult to hire.
Today there are many new impediments to hiring — ObamaCare and thesequester, in particular. Reuters and St. Louis Fed
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