This week it became official. Marco Rubio, not Jeb Bush, is now the Republican establishment’s candidate for President.

How do we know that? FOX News pundit Charles Krauthammer has announced it. Since his record for reading the political tea leaves is at least as good as mine, who am I to argue?

Krauthammer says the “final four” in the race to the GOP National Convention will be Trump, Carson, Rubio and Cruz. Of those four candidates, there is zero debate over who represents the Republican establishment now that Jeb Bush is no longer in the picture. Since Bush is a “dead man walking,” the establishment needs another horse to ride and they are rallying to Senator Rubio.

What the “high rollers” don’t yet see is that politically speaking, Marco Rubio is a dead man dreaming—because he carried the establishment’s water on the most important issue of the 2016 campaign, immigration.

No one can deny that Marco Rubio is an attractive candidate. Rubio has a dream and he has a strategy to fulfill that dream. He is a more formidable candidate than Jeb Bush because he is articulate and is running as a “centrist conservative.”

That might be a seductive and appealing message for conservatives, but it has one fatal flaw: It’s not true. First, he’s not a conservative on the issue that counts most, and second, he can’t beat Hillary without being on the right side of that issue. Rubio is clearly an open borders Republican. He is the Chamber of Commerce candidate, the “more is better” candidate, and the amnesty candidate.

That Rubio is an open borders Chamber of Commerce Republican is undeniable from his record, and when conservatives compare any candidate’s campaign promises to his voting record, they believe the record, not the promises.

Rubio can run from his record on immigration, but he can’t hide from it. That record begins with his sponsorship and vocal support for the 2013 “Gang of Eight” amnesty bill — a bill he abandoned only after it was dead in the water in the House.

Since the Gang of Eight bill died so ingloriously, Rubio has waffled all over the map on immigration issues but never repudiated his commitment to amnesty as a goal.

The problem Rubio is encountering in trying to sell himself as a “centrist conservative” is that every poll shows that among Republicans, on immigration he is out of step with the Republican mainstream. On immigration, he chooses to represent Wall Street, not Main Street.

In trying to be the “safe conservative” in a year when conservatives want to repudiate the D.C. establishment, Rubio is proving to be as tone deaf as Jeb Bush.

Rubio’s supporters must believe rank and file Republican voters are really stupid—or so desperate they can be persuaded that up is down, a leopard can change its spots, and a dozen bilingual unicorns will lead off Rubio’s inaugural parade.

Senator Ted Cruz is betting those Beltway cynics betting on conservative stupidity are wrong. My bet is on Ted Cruz.