Republicans have taken a 9-point national lead among Hispanic voters and more than doubled support in the black community to 27 percent, a Wall Street Journal survey shows.
The poll, conducted for the newspaper by Democrat firm Impact Research and GOP firm Fabrizio, Lee & Associates from March 2 to March 7, surveyed 1,500 registered voters and has a 2.5 percent margin of error.
It shows that the GOP has broken open a nearly double-digit lead with Hispanic voters since the Journal’s last poll in November, leading Democrats by 9 points, whereas back in November the two parties were tied with the key, growing demographic.
“The survey also found Republicans making gains among minority groups. By 9 percentage points, Hispanic voters in the new poll said they would back a Republican candidate for Congress over a Democrat,” the Wall Street Journal’s Michael Bender wrote. “The two parties had been tied among Hispanic voters in the Journal’s survey in November.”
Among black voters, Republicans have more than doubled their support since the November survey. Back then, the GOP had 12 percent support in the black community—a number that is consistent with national election results in recent years—but, now, in this survey, Republicans have a whopping 27 percent of black voter support.
“Democratic margins also eroded among Black voters, who favored a Democrat for Congress by 35 percentage points in the new survey, down from 56 points in November,” Bender wrote. “Support for a Republican candidate rose to 27% among Black voters, up from 12% in November.”
The findings could be detrimental politically long-term for Democrats if these trends stick, as Democrats generally need close to or greater than 90 percent of black voters and a much stronger performance among Hispanic voters to build a majority coalition and win elections. Republicans have long dreamed of making inroads like this with Hispanic and black voters, and while this is just one poll, it does seem to indicate some opportunity and movement on this front. If this translates into electoral results, especially if combined with Republicans’ recent gains among white working-class voters, this could prove cataclysmic politically for Democrats in the long term and force the party to reconsider its views and stances on major issues. Democrats, as evidenced by President Joe Biden’s recent State of the Union address, have been struggling to rebrand away from party-held positions on matters like their support for defunding police. If the findings in this poll become more prevalent and threaten the Democrats’ longtime electoral dominance in minority communities, look for more rebranding attempts from a party in peril.
Perhaps a warning sign to Democrats that this is not a one-off, Republicans have been making gains in recent elections–especially in South Florida and South Texas–among Hispanic voters. Tracking this trend in upcoming elections will be something many election observers in both parties continue to watch closely.
Combined with these gains among minority voters, Republicans increased their overall lead on the generic ballot as well since the Journal’s November survey. In November, Republicans led 44 percent to 41 percent over Democrats, with 14 percent undecided. Now, in March, Republicans lead 46 percent to 41 percent with 11 percent undecided.