Despite the best efforts of the corporate media and some in the Republican Party, President Donald Trump’s approval rating with the GOP not only remains as strong as it ever has (which is really, really strong), but he tops former Presidents Barry Obama and George W. Bush.
Six months ago, Trump’s approval rating among Republicans was 87 percent. Today, it’s still 87 percent.
At this same point in his second term, Bush’s approval rating with Republicans sat at 78 percent. At this point in his own second term, Obama’s approval rating among Democrats was … 78 percent. That’s nine points below Trump.
These number put a definitive end to the media narrative that the MAGA base is splitting and in some sort of disarray or civil war. It’s all poppycock.
The poll also looks at Trump’s success with endorsements in Republican primary races and finds he has backed the winning candidate by 98 percent in 2020, 95 percent in 2022, and 96 percent in 2024.
CNN points out that Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s (R-GA) decision to leave office a year before her term is up and not seek re-election in 2026 was a no-brainer. She turned against Trump. Trump endorsed her primary opponent. So, all signs pointed to a humiliating loss.
While all of that is great news for Trump, there’s also no question that the two-term president has seen a noticeable dip in his approval ratings and rise in his disapproval ratings. According to the RealClearPolitics poll of polls, Trump averaged a 45 percent approval/53 percent disapproval rating on October 1. Today, his average sits at 43 percent approve/55 percent disapproval. An eight-point deficit is now a 13-point deficit. Where is the dip coming from?
If you believe the polling, it’s mostly coming from disapproving Independent voters over the economy.
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Nevertheless, come the 2026 midterm elections, I’ve no doubt Trump will be out there ginning up his base to vote by turning the election into a referendum on him. When Trump is on the ballot, even figuratively, his people turn out, and, as we have seen numerous times, that makes all the difference.
There are also signs that the economy will improve in early 2026, which will help.
Still, holding firm to your base of support is everything in presidential politics. If you lose your base, as George W. Bush did about halfway through his second term by backing amnesty for illegal aliens, the bottom falls out of your approval ratings—you sit in the 30s and even the 20s.
Trump hasn’t forgotten who got him to the dance.
Above all, this is still Trump’s Republican Party.
John Nolte’s first and last novel, Borrowed Time, is winning five-star raves from everyday readers. You can read an excerpt here and an in-depth review here. Also available in hardcover and on Kindle and Audiobook.