MONTGOMERY, Alabama — A new poll from JMC Analytics shows Democrat Doug Jones taking a lead over conservative Republican Judge Roy Moore in the Senate race here as allegations against Moore from the Washington Post roil the Senate race.
The poll, released on Sunday morning, shows Jones at 46 percent and Moore at 42 percent while Arlester McBride, an independent, gets 2 percent—and 9 percent are undecided.
Decision 2017: Alabama (General Election) U.S. Senate poll #2 – https://t.co/Ik9GO4koXX
— John Couvillon (@WinWithJMC) November 12, 2017
With leaners included, Jones clocks in at 48 percent, Moore at 44 percent, and McBride at 2 percent with 6 percent undecided.
The survey was conducted on Nov. 9 and Nov. 11—after the Washington Post’s piece on Moore broke. Its sample size is 575 likely voters and has a 4.1 percent margin of error with a 95 percent confidence interval.
The news here is not good for Moore—this pollster was accurate throughout the primaries, despite claims from GOP establishment forces aligned with appointed incumbent Sen. Luther Strange that his polling was not right.
It comes after two different polls showed the race tightening in the wake of the allegations, but other polls from in-state pollster John Wahl—who had previously done polling for Moore’s campaign, but conducted polls independently before the story broke and after—shows virtually no change at all.
The bigger picture suggests a fluid race, where either candidate could emerge in the coming weeks as the main force walking into the Dec. 12 special election. Moore has vehemently denied the allegations in the Washington Post.