Putin to Visit China a Week After Trump’s Trip to Beijing

The Kremlin announced on Saturday that Russian President Vladimir Putin will travel to Beijing on Tuesday and Wednesday to meet with Chinese dictator Xi Jinping, less than a week after President Donald Trump’s high-profile meeting with Xi.

The Kremlin made the announcement less than 24 hours after Trump returned home to the United States from his meeting with Xi. The Russian government claimed the close timing of the meetings was coincidental, and Putin’s trip was intended to coincide with the 25th anniversary of the Sino-Russian Treaty of Friendship, signed by Putin with Xi’s predecessor Jiang Zemin on July 16, 2001.

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The 2001 document – formally known as the Treaty for Good Neighborliness, Friendship, and Cooperation – was the first agreement signed by Russia and China since Joseph Stalin signed a treaty with Mao Zedong in 1950.

The 2001 treaty symbolically marked the end of a long period of tensions between Moscow and Beijing and inaugurated their partnership as a counter to perceived American hegemony, a doctrine the Russians and Chinese called “multipolarity.”

The past quarter-century has seen closer military, economic, and diplomatic coordination between Russia and China, although the Russians occasionally chafe at China’s senior role in the partnership, and the Chinese have not been completely pleased with Putin’s war on Ukraine. Despite these squabbles, Russia and China upgraded their relationship to a “no limits partnership” in 2022, and China has rebuffed U.S. attempts to enlist its assistance with prodding Putin to end the Ukraine war.

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The Kremlin said on Monday that it has “very serious expectations” for Putin’s trip to Beijing.

“We and our Chinese friends refer to it as a ‌particularly ⁠privileged and strategic partnership,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, promising that a detailed agenda for Putin’s trip would soon be provided by Putin’s aid Yury Ushakov.

“We are not competing with anyone regarding the composition of our delegations. We are developing our independent and very multifaceted relations with China, which we and our Chinese friends call a privileged, special strategic partnership,” Peskov insisted, when asked if Putin was trying to upstage Trump’s visit last week.

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Peskov said “all issues that are on ⁠the economic ​agenda of our bilateral ​relations will naturally be addressed,” but he declined to answer specific questions about the Power of Siberia 2 (PoS-2) gas pipeline, a project that could transport up to 50 billion cubic meters of Russian natural gas to China via Mongolia — permanently replacing the natural gas sales to Europe that Russia lost after invading Ukraine.

The Russians have been notably more eager to sign the PoS-2 deal than China, which has some reservations about the high price tag. If the last obstacles to a deal are cleared soon, Russian energy executives believe the pipeline could begin delivering Russian gas to China as early as 2030.

The Economist speculated on Monday that Xi invited Putin to Beijing to send an “unmistakable signal” that even if China improves relations with America, it will not come at the expense of China’s “no limits partnership” with Russia.

The trip could also give Xi an opportunity to remind Putin that he is very much the junior partner in that relationship, especially after Russia bled away so much of its strength trying to conquer Ukraine.

If the PoS-2 pipeline is discussed, Xi will probably remind Putin that Russia needs to sell its gas to China much more urgently than China needs to buy it, even after the Strait of Hormuz crisis. Putin may nevertheless have his best opportunity in years to close the pipeline deal, because China is nervous about the security of seaborne energy flows after the Iran war.

Russia still has some advanced military technology it has been reluctant to share with the Chinese, who have copied much of Russia’s inventory, and now produce the lion’s share of the weapons they used to purchase from Moscow. Russia, conversely, wants to increase its purchase of dual-use military/civilian technology from China to replenish what it has lost in Ukraine. The makings of a new military agreement could be found in those complementary desires, although it probably would not be announced to the public during Putin’s visit.

Deutsche Welle (DW) said on Monday that Xi will enjoy the spectacle of Putin trooping to Beijing less than a week after Trump left, burnishing China’s image as the indispensable rising global power.

The best-case scenario for global stability would be Putin using his visit this week to sound Xi out about taking the role as mediator in a peace deal with Ukraine. Putin recently made an unexpected comment to reporters that he thought the war was “coming to an end,” and grumbled vaguely about Western powers “ratcheting up a confrontation with Russia” by supporting the Ukrainians.

In the same press conference, Putin floated the idea of former German chancellor Gerhard Schroeder serving as a negotiator from the European Union. Schroeder is under fire at home for close ties with Putin and the German government shot down Putin’s trial balloon as “not credible.” Xi would be a much more impressive choice as mediator.

Claus Soong of Germany’s Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) told DW that for all the talk of an unlimited partnership between Russia and China, the two countries are more like “a couple in the same bed with different dreams.” This week might present Xi and Putin with an opportunity to discuss just how wide the gap between their dreams is.