Polling shows Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) surpassing far-left challenger James Talarico (D) less than a month out from the Texas U.S. Senate race.

A survey from InsiderAdvantage released on Thursday shows Paxton with a slim lead on Democrat Texas State Rep. Talarico, 49 percent to 48 percent. 

The pollster had not released cross tabs giving a further demographic breakdown as of Thursday evening. However, the survey is the second in a week showing Paxton eking past “God is non-binary” Talarico, as the Democrat faces fire for his nearly two-week absence from the campaign trail in the final action-packed stretch before election day. 

Polling released on Tuesday from Quantus Insights shows Paxton and Talarico neck and neck in the most expensive contest of the 2026 midterm cycle, with the attorney general snagging a narrow lead, 47.2 percent to 46.7 percent.

Quantus Insights said Paxton’s narrow lead is owed to what Breitbart News reported in August — Talarico already maxed out support among Democrats in the state. Tuesday’s poll results showed an advantage among independent voters for Talarico, a 15-point edge of 52 percent to 37 percent. Yet Paxton’s slow growth among Republican voters who dominate the state continues to put him in position to claim the seat, Breitbart’s Matt Mercer reported. 

Cook Political Report rates the race a “toss-up” after shifting it from “leans Republican” in August. RealClear Polling shows Talarico with an average lead of 2.3 points, within recent surveys’ margins of error.

Republican-aligned groups have frenetically spent to bury Talarico in the hopes of keeping the seat. On Oct. 1, Axios reported that the Senate Leadership Fund-aligned Texas PAC spent $131 million in September, and tens of millions more were incoming in the month of October.

Texas will host early in-person voting beginning on Monday, October 19.

The InsiderAdvantage poll was conducted with 1,200 likely voters with a margin of error of ± 2.83 percentage points. 

Matt Mercer contributed to this report. 

Katherine Hamilton is a political reporter for Breitbart News. You can follow her on X @thekat_hamilton.