In a generic congressional poll, the NPR/PBS News/Marist poll found Democrats beating the GOP by eight points, 52 to 44 percent, but the internals show that Republicans are closing the enthusiasm gap.
“While 98 percent of Democratic likely voters said they would vote for their party’s candidate, only 81 percent believed that candidate would win, a 17-point gap,” reports the Daily Mail. “Among Republicans, the difference between intending to vote for their candidate and expecting them to win was smaller, at 10 points.”
Here’s where MAGA appears to hold a serious edge: “Just 42 percent of likely voters under 45 said they were ‘very enthusiastic’ about voting.” Additionally, only 53 percent of non-whites and 56 percent of college-educated white women — two key Democrat coalitions — said they were very enthusiastic.
However, 68 percent of MAGA voters told the pollster they were very enthusiastic.
“Last month, 42 percent of Democrats said they were following the election very closely, compared with just 34 percent of Republicans,” adds the Daily Mail. “The latest poll put the figures at 46 percent for Democrats and 45 percent for Republicans.”
No one knows what’s going to happen next week. The primary reason no one knows is that polling these days is either corrupt or incompetent. All polling is compromised in some way.
Here’s something to keep in mind…
One thing I’ve never seen is Democrats out-performing their polling in general election races. It’s no accident that, even when Democrats win, the polling almost always overestimates how well they will do.
The opposite is true, of course, for the GOP. Support for Republicans is almost always underestimated in polling when compared to the final result. This has been true going back 25 years, and the fact that it has not been fixed tells you pollsters don’t want to fix it. Not even Fox News.
In the RealClearPolitics poll of polls, Democrats currently hold an 8.2-point lead on the generic ballot. In 2018, Democrats enjoyed a 7.3-point lead and picked up 40 seats in the House. In the U.S. Senate, though, Republicans picked up a net of two seats.
So, as I said, no one knows what will happen.
Either way it falls, President Trump deserves a lot of credit for getting out there. In the past, both Democrat and Republican presidents have usually been reluctant to spend political capital campaigning for a candidate unless the win looked like a fairly sure thing. Not Trump. He’s out there campaigning everywhere. He’s laying it all on the line. This should gin up enthusiasm, awareness, and, by extension, turnout.
Turnout is the key.