So you were suspicious about those September job creation numbers touted by the Obama Administration? You had good reason to be.
The payroll data firm ADP, which recently became partners with Moody’s Analytics, revised their estimate of the September jobs created down from 162,000 to 88,200. That new number is considerably less than the Labor Department’s count of 114,000, which included 104,000 from the private sector.
When the Labor Department’s job numbers came out for September, there was an uproar; many observers thought the numbers were manipulated to benefit Barack Obama’s reelection. As Jack Welch, former head of General Electric, tweeted after the Labor Department’s release: "Unbelievable jobs numbers...these Chicago guys will do anything...can't debate so change numbers."
But the revised ADP numbers have sparked strong suspicion that the October numbers will be worse than the Labor Department will let on.
Todd Schoenberger, managing principal at the BlackBay Group in New York, said: “It's huge, no doubt about it. Their changing the methodology tells me that if the number is cut in half with that revision, then the revision we're going to see Friday is going to be a disaster."
ADP is taking no chances this time; they will announce their October count on Thursday before the Labor Department announces theirs on Friday. ADP said its new reports will offer a more detailed breakdown of the numbers while they increase the numbers of businesses analyzed.