Wisconsin Poll: Joe Biden 47.5%, Donald Trump 47.1%

Joe Biden (D) and President Trump are statistically tied in battleground Wisconsin as the election enters its final stretch, a Trafalgar Group survey released Wednesday found.

With less than a week to go, Trump and Biden are virtually tied in the Badger State, separated by less than half a percentage point. The survey, fielded October 24-25 among 1,082 respondents, showed the former vice president leading Trump by a razor-thin margin — 47.5 percent to 47.1 percent. Just over three percent back libertarian candidate Jo Jorgensen, 1.2 percent chose another candidate, and 1.1 percent remain undecided. The margin of error is +/-2.89 percent:

Our new @trafalgar_group #2020Election #BattlegroundState #WIpoll conducted Oct 24-25 shows undecided shrinking and a razor thin Biden lead:
47.5% @JoeBiden,
47.1% @realDonaldTrump,
3.1% @Jorgensen4POTUS,
1.2% Other,
1.1% Und. See Report: https://t.co/VAoU4iJFHb pic.twitter.com/aNF2nvKmVZ

— Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) October 28, 2020

According to early voting data gleaned from NBC News, over 1.3 million ballots have been returned in Wisconsin. The number includes mail-in votes and early in-person voting. Seventy-nine percent of those have been returned via mail, and the remaining 21 percent have been cast in person. According to Wednesday afternoon’s data, 42 percent of the ballots had been returned by Republicans and 36 percent by Democrats. The remaining 22 percent were returned by voters unaffiliated with either major party.

Trafalgar Group has been lauded by RealClearPolitics (RCP) co-founder and president, Tom Bevan, who recognized chief pollster Robert Cahaly as the “only pollster to correctly show Donald Trump with a lead in Michigan and Pennsylvania — two key states he carried — heading into Election Day.” Cahaly did not examine the race in Wisconsin, which Trump also won, at the time.

“Cahaly’s firm, the Trafalgar Group, has emerged from the last two political cycles as one of the most accurate polling operations in America,” he wrote in a June 2020 post.

Wednesday’s RCP average showed Biden up just over six percent.