Poll: Trump, Biden Statistically Tied in Pennsylvania, Democrat Sen. Casey is Vulnerable

In this combination of file photos, former Vice President Joe Biden speaks in Wilmington, Del., on March 12, 2020, left, and President Donald Trump speaks at the White House in Washington on April 5, 2020. Early polling in the general election face-off between Trump and Biden bears out a gap …
AP Photo, File

Former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden are statistically tied in a hypothetical 2024 presidential match-up, according to a National Public Affairs poll.  

The poll, published on Thursday, shows that 45 percent of likely voters in the Quaker State back Trump in a head-to-head match-up with Biden, who takes 47 percent of the response. As the poll is within the 3.9 percentage point margin of error, the candidates are statistically tied. Another eight percent of responses are undecided. 

Trump’s former White House political director, Bill Stepien, serves as a partner at National Public Affairs, and Macy Stepien is its executive vice president of polling and data analysis. In a memo providing analysis of the poll, they note that Trump holds an advantage among independents, while Biden leads with women:

Notably, Trump currently overperforms among middle-aged men (+35), voters without a college degree (+24), those who live in the Pittsburgh media market (+32) and Independents (+9). Whereas, Biden has a strong lead among key voting groups like women (+25), college graduates (+27), those who live in the Philadelphia media market (+18) and younger voters (+7).

Pennsylvania was a crucial win for Trump on his way to victory over a twice-failed presidential candidate in 2016. He bested Clinton by more than 44,000 votes before Biden won the state back in 2020 by nearly double that margin. 

The poll also finds that Sen Bob Casey (D-PA) is vulnerable in his bid for reelection. He trails a generic Republican by two points, putting him in a statistical tie, considering the margin of error. Notably, Casey won the state by more than 13 percentage points in 2018 over Lou Barletta.

U.S. Sen. Bob Casey, D-Pa., speaks before President Joe Biden at a campaign rally for Pennsylvania’s Democratic gubernatorial candidate Josh Shapiro and Democratic Senate candidate Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, Nov. 5, 2022, in Philadelphia. Casey said Thursday, Jan. 5, 2023, that he will undergo surgery for prostate cancer but is expected to make a full recovery. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke, File)

However, 2022’s Senate race in Pennsylvania showed a more competitive political climate for Republicans. Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA) beat out celebrity doctor Mehmet Oz by just under five percentage points. 

Businessman Dave McCormick, who lost to Oz by less than 1,000 votes in a recount of the 2022 GOP primary, announced his challenge to Casey on Thursday night, as Breitbart News’s Jordan Dixon-Hamilton reported.

David McCormick

Dave McCormick, a Republican candidate for U.S. Senate in Pennsylvania during a campaign event in Coplay, Pa., Tuesday, Jan. 25, 2022. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke)

“Under Joe Biden and Bob Casey, what’s supposed to be up is down, and what’s supposed to be down is up. We can and must do better. We cannot lose our country. We cannot lose our culture. We cannot accept the status quo,” McCormick said Wednesday.

“My opponent is a rubber stamp. More to the point, he is Joe Biden’s rubber stamp. When Joe Biden says jump, Bob Casey says how high. When Joe Biden says vote, Bob Casey says which way. And when Joe Biden comes calling, Bob Casey comes running,” McCormick added.

National Public Affairs sampled 622 likely voters from September 14-17. 


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