Poll: Ohio’s Bernie Moreno Surges 12 Points After Trump Endorsement

Republican businessman Bernie Moreno has surged 12 points since November in Ohio’s GOP primary for U.S. Senate and is in first place, according to a poll conducted after he received former President Donald Trump’s influential endorsement.

The Emerson College poll, published Thursday morning, shows Moreno atop the field with 22 percent of support. He has a one-point edge over Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose – who was a longtime Trump critic – at 21 percent. Moreno’s lead falls within the poll’s credibility interval. State Sen. Matt Dolan (R) lands in third place with 15 percent of support, and another 42 percent are undecided.

In a November Emerson poll conducted for Fox 8 Cleveland – before Moreno received Trump’s endorsement –  he was in third place at ten percent, while LaRose was in first place with 18 percent and Dolan garnered 15 percent.

“Moreno had the most substantial movement from the November poll following former President Trump’s December endorsement,” Emerson College Polling Executive Director Spencer Kimball said in a release.

“A quarter (25%) of Trump general election voters support Moreno in the U.S. Senate primary. Twenty percent would support LaRose, and 12% would support Dolan. Forty-two percent are still undecided ahead of the primary,” he added.

The Republican primary portion of the poll included 842 respondents and a credibility interval was not specified, though it is larger than the plus or minus 2.3 percent credibility interval for the poll’s full sample of 1,844 registered respondents.

Emerson College Polling also gauged potential general elections between the three Republican candidates and Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH).

In a race between Moreno and Brown, the senator leads 39 percent to 37 percent. The lead falls within the poll’s credibility interval of plus or minus 2.3 percentage points for the full sample. Another six percent would back someone else, and 18 percent would be undecided.

LaRose and Brown garner identical numbers in their match-up with the same share of voters who are undecided about who would vote for someone else.

Like Moreno and LaRose, Dolan also pings at 37 percent, but Brown takes 38 percent of the response in this scenario. Five percent would back a third candidate, and twenty percent would be undecided.

Polling was conducted between January 23-25.