The 2010 midterm elections are shaping up to be a Democrats nightmare. But the problems for the Democrats and Obama won’t end there. Indeed, the fallout from the 2010 elections will likely carry over into 2012 which may well feature Hillary running against Obama and Nancy Pelosi’s retirement. Here’s why:
1. Republican’s Political Carpe Diem. It appears more everyday that Congressional Republicans are coming to grips with the tide sweeping the Country – Tea Party and otherwise. If Republicans rekindle their successful strategy of 1994, by setting a clear, practical and limited fall election agenda, then they can successfully frame the election debate, and . . .
2. The Democrats Should Lose the House in 2010. As I have chronicled elsewhere, the average loss for the President’s Party in the House, when his approval rating is below 50%, is 41 seats – enough for the Republicans to regain the House in 2010 if that average holds up – and it should. The Democrats are continuing to fight amongst themselves – an acceptable exercise in an off year but not in an election year (as in 1968 for the Democrats). Obama is talking about election year tax increases and using executive powers and a legislative cram down of health care. None of those dynamics bode well for Democrats, will fuel even more voter anger and should actually drive Obama’s ratings down further – keeping the modern string going of no President improving his approval ratings in a midterm election year.
3. Pelosi Retires after 2012. If the Democrats lose the House in 2010, it should not be long thereafter that Pelosi retires. Ask yourself: How many former Speakers of the House are still in Congress? It is perhaps the ultimate up and out position in politics – with no place to retreat. In short, if the House falls – so will she.
4. Hillary Will Run in 2012. If the Democrats lose the House, they can blame Nancy, Harry and Obama. Their agenda was far too divisive in an era of divisive politics. No one, however, deserves more blame than Obama. He picked too many fights with Americans and couldn’t control Pelosi. That is why his ratings are so low.
Beyond that, Obama will likely not be able to make a Clinton comeback. Obama couldn’t get his radical agenda passed even though the Democrats controlled the Senate and House because he lacks the necessary skills to build consensus and govern. His leadership deficiencies mean that he won’t fare any better in a divided government.
In the face of such Carter-like difficulties, the Democrats will have to ask themselves: Should we place our 2012 Congressional election fate in the hands of Obama? Many will say yes – enough could well say no because . . .
(a) Obama will have not done much for them. Keep in mind that Obama was rushed into the Presidency. He didn’t have a long career of helping other Democrats around the country. As a result, he doesn’t have a reservoir of good will from battles he fought for them. Just the opposite, they went out on a limb for him. Since becoming President, Obama pushed headlong into policy fights that have hurt Democrats more then helped them. Obama’s campaigning for candidates has not been successful either – just ask Governor Corzine and Senator Coakley. Indeed, moderate Democrats are telling him to stay away in 2010. All-in-all, don’t expect too many to bleed for Obama in 2012 – to the contrary, many will prefer to try to stop the bleeding they are suffering at his hands.
(b) Hillary Will Have Better Ratings Than Obama. The Clintons are no dummies. They knew Obama would fail. So, in anticipation, Hillary simultaneously (a) burnished her foreign policy credentials as Secretary of State, and (b) distanced herself from the domestic problems of the Democrats and her approval ratings have risen accordingly – even if she had no major successes. Brilliant by comparison to Obama.
She can also correctly say: “I Told You So – he wasn’t ready and I certainly am.”
The Democrats, or enough them, won’t want to give up the White House in 2012. Carter was a one term President – Johnson not much more than that. Their only two-term President was a Clinton – and enough Democrats will urge this Clinton to run in 2012 hoping for another electoral first – a female President.
Too farfetched you say? Check out my 2010 predictions made in January of 2009.
and stay tuned – watch for Hillary to resign from her position Secretary of State sooner than later . . .
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