Poll: Donald Trump Takes Lead in North Carolina

joe biden President Donald J. Trump addresses the nation from the Oval Office of the White
WH Photo/Joyce N. Boghosian, Gage Skidmore/Flickr

President Trump now leads Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden by two points in the key battleground state of North Carolina, 49 percent to 47 percent, according to a poll released by East Carolina University on Tuesday.

The results represent a three point swing towards the president and away from Biden when compared to the most recent poll East Carolina University conducted in June, which gave the former vice president a one point lead over Trump.

“Our poll results show that there are few undecided voters and few voters who are willing to change their mind, whether they are currently Biden or Trump supporters. This suggests that campaign efforts to persuade voters is unlikely to make a significant difference,” Dr. Peter Francia, Director of the East Carolina University Center for Survey Research, said in a statement that accompanied the release of the poll.

“Instead, the outcome of the Trump-Biden contest in North Carolina will hinge on which party – Democrats or Republicans – does a better job of turning out their supporters to vote. By extension, the results in the Trump-Biden election will almost certainly affect several of the highly competitive down-ballot races as well,” Francia added.

President Trump leads Biden among white voters by a 25 point margin, 61 percent to 36 percent, while former Vice President Biden leads the president among black voters by a 66 point margin, 79 percent to 13 percent.

There is a significant gender gap when it comes to presidential support among black voters.

Twenty-one percent of black male voters support President Trump, while only seven percent of black female voters back the president.

In the head-to-head matchup, 74 percent of black male voters say they intend to vote for Biden, while 21 percent say they intend to vote for Trump. In contrast, 82 percent of black female voters say they intend to vote for Biden, while only seven percent say they intend to vote for Trump.

Black voters make up 20 percent of poll respondents, while white voters account for 70 percent of poll respondents, a demographic mix comparable to 2016 voting behavior.

In 2016, President Trump won eight percent support from black voters, so his support among black voters in North Carolina in this poll is five points higher than it was nationally in 2016. That 13 percent support for the president among black voters in North Carolina is lower than the 19 percent to 20 percent support the president receives nationally among those voters, according to three recent polls.

Significantly, the poll also shows that incumbent Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) has pulled into a tie with his Democratic challenger Cal Cunningham, 44 percent to 44 percent, the first time in two months a major poll in the state has not shown Cunningham in the lead.

In the gubernatorial race, incumbent Gov. Roy Cooper (D-NC) leads Republican challenger Dan Forest by ten points, 50 percent to 40 percent.

The poll of 1,101 likely voters was conducted between August 29 and August 30, immediately after the last day of the Republican National Convention on August 28, and has a 3.4 percent margin of error.

President Trump won North Carolina’s 15 electoral college votes in 2016, defeating Hillary Clinton there by a margin of 3.8 points, 50.5 percent to 46.7 percent.

According to the most current version of the Real Clear Politics Average of Polls, President Trump now leads Biden by one point in North Carolina. That result represents a 5.7 point swing towards the president in one month. On July 31, the Real Clear Politics Average of Polls showed Biden leading Trump in the state by 4.7 points, 50 percent to 45.3 percent.


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