Rasmussen Poll: GOP Leads Generic Congressional Ballot by 4 Points, 11 Among Independents

UNITED STATES - MAY 14: From left, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., newly e
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The Republicans lead Democrats on the generic congressional ballot by four points, leading by 11 points among independents, roughly two weeks before the election, according to Rasmussen Reports’ weekly poll.

The weekly poll released Friday showed the generic Republican candidate is up by four points, with 47 percent of the likely U.S. voters to the generic Democrat candidate’s 43 percent, a three points deficiency from last week’s.

With 18 days before the election, only four percent said they would vote for another candidate, while seven said they were still unsure.

The four-point advantage on the generic congressional ballot is a good sign for the Republicans. The Hosue GOP is looking to net five seats, win back the majority, and unseat Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) from her speakership. In fact, the Republicans have led the generic ballot all year.

Rasmussen noted that in October 2018 — before Democrats took the House for the first time in eight years — the Democrats had a three-point lead over the Republicans, which is slightly less than what the GOP has now. And as the 2018 November midterm election neared, the margins between Democrats and Republicans stayed extremely close, with Republicans having a one-point advantage nationally, 46 percent to 45 percent.

Additionally, this poll found that the Republican party also showed a massive 11-point lead with independents over Democrats. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, 42 percent said they would vote for the GOP candidate, while only 31 percent said they would vote for the Democrat candidate.

Moreover, 21 percent of black voters and 39 percent of other minority groups said they would vote for the Republican candidate if the election were held today. A Democrat candidate would garner support from 61 percent of black voters and 43 percent of other minority groups.

Furthermore, there is a difference in voter intensity between the parties, with 85 percent of Republican voters saying they would vote for their own party’s congressional candidate and only 82 percent of Democrats saying the same thing.

The Rasmussen Reports survey was conducted from October 16 to 20 and questioned 2,500 likely U.S. voters. The survey had a two percent margin of error and a 95 percent confidence level.

Jacob Bliss is a reporter for Breitbart News. Write to him at jbliss@breitbart.com or follow him on Twitter @JacobMBliss.


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