The Democratic Party’s dominance of the Golden State may be waning.
More than 900,000 ballots turned in by early voters in the June 2 primary show more than a three-fold surge in Republican votes compared to the last governor’s race four years ago, according to newly released data.
Data linked in a post over the weekend from the research firm Political Data (PDI) showed that “out of 905,889 ballots that have been returned, 37% were from Republicans, with Republican returns up 11% compared to the same stage of the 2022 midterms.” the California Post reported.
The data also showed that the number of Democrats who have returned their ballots were down 13 percentage points from the same moment in the primary election four years ago.
According to the Post:
When comparing the 2022 numbers to 2026 the difference is stark.
41% (-13)-Democrats
37% (+11)- Republicans
22% (+2)-Independents/other
Analyst and Vice President with PDI Paul Mitchell told the outlet the early numbers were the result of two different factors.
“Republicans are potentially returning their ballots at a pre-2020 rate, before [President Donald]Trump and other leaders discouraged it,” Mitchell told the Post.
The second factor is that “some Democrats are holding on to their ballot to make sure their vote isn’t wasted, so that they get to vote for someone that makes it to the top two.”
However, others are lauding the Republican turnout.
A post on X from Central Valley Politics mapped out how each county is manifesting the GOP response, showing areas of the state turning red.
“California Republicans are currently killing it in the early vote, so I decided to map it out,” the post read.
“First map is returns by party. Second map is returns relative to the party registration advantage of each county.”
It added, “we’re punching above our weight in all but two counties so far.”
A look at the PDI data shows 65 and older group has had the largest turnout with 54 percent of ballots returned while the 18-34 age group is having a low turnout of 10 percent ballots returned.
Whites also account for 67 percent of the turnout while the state’s large Latino population accounts for only 19 percent and black voters 11 percent.
In the governor’s race, the Democratic slate is led by former US Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, progressive billionaire Tom Steyer and former Orange County congresswoman Katie Porter, with Jose Mayor Matt Mahan and ex-Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa rounding out the field.
On the Republican side, former Fox News host Steve Hilton appears to have a firm lead on Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco.
The top two finishers of the primary, regardless of party, will face each other in the November general election.
It remains to be seen if the favorable trends for Republicans will manifest when all the votes are counted in June and later in the November mid terms.
In February, President Donald Trump predicted a red wave in state elections associated with the 2026 midterms.
“You know, in presidential races, they say when you win the presidency, usually the midterms don’t go well,” he told an event featuring GOP governors. “I think we’re going to do great. I think we’re going to really increase our margins by a lot.”
Contributor Lowell Cauffiel is the best-selling author of the Los Angeles crime novel Below the Line and nine other crime novels and nonfiction titles. See lowellcauffiel.com for more.