If Romney Had Such a 'Brutal Three Weeks', Why Aren't His Poll Numbers Collapsing?
Since the end of the DNC convention early this month, the Democrat-media complex have been on a daily quest to call the election for Obama. While this has always been expected, it has been especially surreal to watch it unfold against the back-drop of terrible news for Obama. First, there have been several economic reports signaling a clear down-turn in the economy. Last week was the horrific murder of an American Ambassador and dozens of violent riots outside US embassies. Worse, we've since learned that the Obama Administration had advanced warnings of these riots and took no additional security steps. Yet, the media stenographers tell us, it is Romney who is on track to definitely lose the race.
This missive from NBC's Chuck Todd will give you a flavor of the media's "coverage" of the race:
All campaigns have their ups and downs, but the last three weeks for Mitt Romney have been about as brutal as we can remember for any presidential candidate, especially this close to the election.
Question: If Romney's campaign has been flailing for three weeks, why are the polls essentially unchanged? Today's RCP average has Obama leading by 3 points, about where he was before the conventions. In most of them, he is stuck in the high 40s, as he has been all year.
Moreover, almost all of these polls showing Obama with a lead within the margin of error are seriously oversampling Democrats. Their samples are based on a replay of the 2008 electorate, which saw a huge swing to the Democrats. Let's remember that, at that time, the country was weary from eight years of President Bush, the US election took place as an economic crisis was unfolding and Obama, at the time, was seen as some kind of transformative, post-partisan political deity. It is simply impossible to believe the electorate will be as Democrat as it was then.
But, let us set this aside for now. If, as Chuck Todd and the rest of the stenographers tell us, Romney has really had a terrible, horrible, no-good, very bad three weeks, why isn't he collapsing in the polls? The numbers for both Romney and Obama are largely unchanged. In fact, over the past week, Romney has shaved Obama's advantage in the Gallup poll by more than half. Last week, Obama led by 7. Yesterday his lead was down to 3.
So wait, Romney GAINED on Obama in the last week? How is that remotely possible if everything the media is telling us is true? I have an nascent theory on this. But, I'll save that for another day.
Follow me on twitter