A new Public Policy Polling (PPP) Virginia poll found that President Barack Obama is under-performing among blacks by six points. Despite this decline in support, PPP assumes Democrats will have a greater advantage in 2012 at the polls than they had over Republicans in 2008.
In 2008 in Virginia, Democrats had a six-point turnout advantage at the polls (39% to 33%), and independents made up 27% of the electorate. But in the D +7 PPP poll, which found Obama leading Mitt Romney by three points, the partisan breakdown is as follows:
43% Democrat
36% Republican
22% Independent
In 2008, Obama received 92% of the black vote in Virginia. McCain received 8%. In PPP’s poll, Obama receives only 86% of the black vote while Romney receives 11%, which is a nine-point spread.
Yet, PPP believes Democrats will have a greater turnout advantage over Republicans than in 2008. PPP interviewed 600 likely Virginia voters between October 30-31, and the poll’s margin of error is +/- 4%.
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