"We need to tax the trees. They can easily afford it. Right?"
With all the industry developments we saw in last weekend's results, look for family audiences to once again rule the marketplace. That, and you'll find The Blind Side connections to a couple of films releasing this weekend.
This weekend's prediction and revenue results go as follows:
1. The Lion King 3-D (20 million) - The run may be extended, but as of right now, Disney only has Lion King slated for a two week release (which would end this weekend). Knowing that, families will fill theaters believing it will be their last chance to do so.
2. A Dolphin Tale (17 million) - The film comes to us from Blind Side producers. Can it beat Lion King 3-D this weekend? It can but not if Lion King has an "event" feel to it, which it currently does. Still, look for the film to do very well.
3. Moneyball (16 million) - Brad Pitt is hoping to channel Sandra Bullock's success from The Blind Side as he headlines this baseball film. Already with Oscar buzz, the film can hold well if it can make the sports formula interesting much like Blind Side, Glory Road, and The Rookie. The key difference is those had a much more family-friendly tone in their narratives while Moneyball is somewhat more off-beat. That tone does fit Brad Pitt's acting ability well and may even give fans a small reminder of his performance in 12 Monkeys.
4. Abduction (13 million) - The odd man out. The film's large marketing campaign has been in full swing for months. Normally this would mean a large opening with Taylor Lautner's Twilight connection. The problem is its now a crowded box office field and doesn't leave much of his key audience left to work with.
5. Killer Elite (10.3 million) - On the surface this film looks solid with a action cast that involves Jason Statham, Clive Owen, and Robert De Niro. Unfortunately, while Abduction's marketing has been noticeable, this one's marketing is all but nonexistent. Add to that the recent box office struggles of Mr. Statham (The Mechanic), Mr. Owen (The International, Duplicity), and even Mr. De Niro (Righteous Kill, Machete) and a different box office forecast quickly develops. Look for this to only do marginally well.