WEST ORANGE, N.J. (AP) - New Jersey is to Republicans what slot machines are to gamblers: irresistible, with long odds of winning. Gamblers pull the lever, hoping for the big payout. Republicans are sharing the same dream, throwing $3.5 million into the Senate race with days left and banking that GOP challenger Tom Kean Jr., can defeat Democratic Sen. Robert Menendez on Nov. 7.
Menendez has maintained a huge cash advantage over Kean throughout the election cycle and the last two weeks, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has been running $4 million worth of ads against Kean.
The GOP infusion of cash levels the money playing field for Kean but is a big gamble, given that New Jerseyans have not elected a Republican to the Senate since 1972.
"This is a Hail Mary pass by the Republicans ... but it may be their only chance," said Rider University political scientist David Rebovich. "Unless they win New Jersey, they may lose control of the Senate."
Democrats need to gain six Senate seats to win control. They are confident they won't lose the New Jersey seat.
"The Bush Republicans will do anything to get another vote in the Senate, but they'd be better off gambling this money away in Atlantic City than throwing it behind a sinking candidate with a losing message," Menendez spokesman Matthew Miller said.
New Jersey Republican Party chairman Tom Wilson argues Kean is not your average candidate. The 38-year-old state senator is the son of popular former Gov. Thomas Kean, who chaired the Sept. 11 commission.
The Kean family is a political dynasty in New Jersey, boasting five colonial governors, two U.S. senators and a congressman. Kean's father served two terms as governor and is still revered by many for his bipartisan style of governing.
"The Kean name is a brand image that people in New Jersey are comfortable with, Republicans, Democrats and independents," Wilson said. "It's the Coca-Cola of New Jersey—people know what they are getting and they like it."
Menendez, 52, has been tarred by where he comes from—Hudson County, the home of a host of corrupt politicians. The Democrat has never been charged with any wrongdoing, but Kean has hammered at his ethics, attempting to link him to several convicted officials. Menendez also has been dogged by reports that law enforcement agents have subpoenaed the records of a nonprofit agency that rented a building from him.
Recent polls show Menendez with a slight edge over Kean, and Rebovich said history is on the Democrats' side, since in past elections, late- deciding voters have normally sided with Democratic candidates. But Menendez, appointed to the Senate in June by Gov. Jon Corzine to serve out the remaining year of his term, has never run a statewide race and has had trouble competing with the Kean name.
The campaign said Menendez would get some help next week from former President Clinton and Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill.
Kean began airing an ad Thursday showing his father, wife and two young daughters. But Kean has been careful not to mention his father too often as he campaigns, and the governor has only appeared with him on a handful of occasions.
"It's a delicate balance for Tom Kean Jr.," Rebovich said. "He wants to invoke the family name and use his very popular father but on the other hand, his dad is associated with more moderate political positions and his son has been quite critical of President Bush.
"Kean reaches unaffiliated voters by being critical of Bush but alienates his Republican base," he added.
While conservatives don't always agree with his moderate views on abortion, gun control and the environment, Kean has managed to win their support, said conservative Republican state Assemblyman Guy Gregg.
"We've had trouble in the past with candidates who ran to the center and lost the base, and candidates from the base that didn't get full support from the center," Gregg said. "But the party here has realized we've got a chance and are 100 percent behind Kean."
Conservative Steve Lonegan, who ran for governor last year, argues that there's a lot of apathy among voters now and bundles of cash for Kean won't make a difference.
"I think this race is going to come down to how people feel about President Bush, the war in Iraq and the economy," Lonegan said.
Menendez is banking on that, and has touted his vote as a congressman in 2002 against authorizing military force in Iraq. At an event with Menendez Wednesday, Sen. John Kerry said the war would be the defining issue in the race. Kean has said he would have voted for the resolution but has been critical of Bush and has called for Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld to resign.
The Massachusetts senator also cautioned voters not to be fooled by the Kean name.
"I knew his dad and I like his dad and his dad has served this country well," Kerry said. "But the last time people voted for somebody because they liked his dad we got 'W'."
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On the Net:
http://www.tomkean.com .
http://www.menendez2006.com .
