Poll: Joe Biden Trails Donald Trump in 5 of 7 Pivotal Swing States in Hypothetical Head-to-Head

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Nick Gilbertson

Former President Donald Trump holds an advantage over President Joe Biden in a number of swing states — which largely decided the last two presidential elections — in a hypothetical head-to-head 2024 general election match-up, according to a comprehensive Morning Consult-Bloomberg News poll.

Trump leads with registered voters in five of the seven swing states in the poll, released Thursday, including Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Biden and Trump are deadlocked in Michigan, and Biden leads in Nevada. 

Biden won all of these states in 2020, except North Carolina, while Trump carried all of them, spare Nevada, in the 2016 presidential election against twice-failed presidential candidate Hillary Clinton.

As the Biden camp has worked feverishly to sell “Bidenmonics” to independents and swing voters, Bloomberg Senior National Political Correspondent Nancy Cook and the outlet’s White House and Politics Correspondent Gregory Korte note voters are rejecting the pitch. 

The 45th enjoys a four-point lead over Biden in Arizona, as they register at 47 percent and 43 percent, respectively, among 804 registered voters. Another four percent of those in the Grand Canyon State will sit the election out, while six percent are unsure who they will back.

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Biden is five points back of Trump in Georgia. Of the Peach State respondents, 48 percent back Trump, and 43 percent support Biden. Six percent of poll participants are undecided, and three percent will not vote if Biden and Trump are their options. This sample includes 801 Georgians. 

Among 702 registered voters in North Carolina, Trump takes 47 percent of the support to Biden’s 43 percent. Another three percent say they will abstain from voting, and seven percent are unsure who they will back in a 2020 rematch. 

In Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, Trump holds a more modest lead over Biden. In Biden’s home state of Pennsylvania, 46 percent of the 802 voters say they will vote for Trump. In comparison, 45 percent will support Biden, with another six percent of voters yet to be won over either potential candidate. Three percent of the respondents surveyed in the Quaker State will not vote if this is the match-up. 

Similarly, Trump garners 46 percent of the response among 700 registered voters in Wisconsin, while 44 percent support Biden. The remaining ten percent of voters are split between being undecided or unenthused to vote in the election if Trump and Biden are the two names on the ballot. 

Conversely, Biden takes a three-point advantage over Trump in Nevada, where they earn 46 percent and 43 percent, respectively. Another six percent are undecided in the hypothetical match-up, while five percent will not cast a ballot. The sample of 503 Nevadans is the smallest sample of any of the states. 

In Michigan, the candidates are in a dead heat at 44 percent a piece. The Wolverine State offers the highest number of undecided voters of any state in the poll at eight percent. Four percent will not vote. The Bloomberg-Morning Consult poll gauged the opinions of 706 Michiganders. 

As Bloomberg reports, the polling average in the seven states equates to a 47 percent to 43 percent lead for Trump. 

“The margin of error is plus or minus 1 percentage point across the seven states; 3 percentage points in Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania; and 4 percentage points in Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin,” noted Cook and Korte.

All samples were collected between October 5 and 10 via online surveys. 

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