Survey: Donald Trump Competitive in Blue New York State

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Hannah Knudsen

Former President Donald Trump is competitive against President Joe Biden in blue New York, a recent Siena College poll found.

The survey found Biden leading Trump by nine points in the Empire State, 46 percent to 37 percent. Notably, eight percent said they did not know who they supported or refused to answer — one point off from the nine-point gap between the two.

This reality coincides with Biden’s waning approval rating among New Yorkers. His favorability is underwater, with 45 percent viewing him favorably and most, 52 percent, viewing him unfavorably. That reflects a switch from the 50-45 percent favorability the 80-year-old saw in September.

Trump enjoys stronger support from New York Republicans than Biden sees from New York Democrats, 78 percent to 71 percent. However, Trump takes an edge among independent New Yorkers, leading Biden by seven points, or 39 percent to 32 percent.

Biden’s lead on Trump decreases when third-party candidates are added to the mix. Biden reduces to a seven-point advantage, leading Trump 38 percent to 31 percent. Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. follows with 13 percent support, followed by five percent who chose Green Party candidate Cornel West. Notably, even with third-party candidates involved, Trump continues to boast an eight-point advantage among independents.

More per the survey:

For 2024, Democrats say they want a different presidential nominee than Biden, 52-41%; in September, they wanted Biden as their nominee, 54-40%. Biden leads former President Trump 46-37% in a head-to-head matchup, down from 52-31% last month. In a 4-way matchup, with independents Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. and Cornell [sic] West, Biden leads Trump 38-31%; Kennedy has 13% and West has 5%, according to a Siena College poll of registered New York State voters released today.

The survey also found the vast majority of New York Republicans supporting Trump in the GOP primary, as 61 percent said they would support him compared to 32 percent who said they would back “someone else.”

The recent immigration crisis could also help explain the general dissatisfaction with Biden in the Empire State, as “more than eight in ten voters continue to say that the recent influx of migrants to New York is a serious problem for the state, 57% very serious, up slightly from 54% in August,” per the survey.

It continues:

Nearly two-thirds, 64%, say New Yorkers have done enough for new migrants and must now work to slow the flow of migrants, compared to 29% who say the state should accept and work to assimilate them; it was 58-36% in August. And 58% agree with Mayor Eric Adams that the migrant issue “will destroy New York City.”

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The survey was taken October 15-19, 2023, among 1,225 registered voters. It has a +/- 3.4 percent margin of error.

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