Poll: Trump Leads Biden Nationally, Towers over Primary Challengers

Republican presidential candidate former U.S. President Donald Trump looks on during a campaign ral
Brandon Bell/Getty Images
Nick Gilbertson

Former President Donald Trump leads President Joe Biden by two points nationally in a hypothetical head-to-head race in the latest Quinnipiac University poll. 

The poll, published on Wednesday, shows that 48 percent of registered voters back Trump for the presidency over Biden when leaners are included, while Biden draws 46 percent. Another three percent would not vote in the election, while one percent are undecided and one percent would back another person.

The candidates equally split independents at 44 percent apiece, while Trump consolidates 96 percent of GOP support and Biden garners 94 percent of Democrat support. This is the first Quinnipiac poll since February showing Trump ahead of Biden, according to a press release from the polling outfit. 

“Trump on top for the first time, at least numerically, and Biden in a slow slide,” Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy noted in the release. “Though the gap between them is small, the optics of the incumbent now on the downside of a neck and neck race against an opponent taking legal fire from all corners can’t be good.”

Trump maintains a slight advantage over Biden in a deeper field, though different competitors have varying impacts on the size of his lead. When Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is included as the lone third-party candidate, he draws from both Biden and Trump’s bases and tightens the race between the two presidents. Trump leads the pack with 38 percent in the scenario, followed by Biden at 37 percent and Kennedy with a substantial 21 percent. 

However, when two more liberal candidates, Cornel West and Jill Stein, are added to the field, Biden’s support suffers. Trump remains at 38 percent in a five-way competition, while Biden drops two percent of support from 37 percent to 35 percent. Kennedy loses supporters as well, as he slipps to 17 percent. West and Stein each garner three percent of the response, while one percent would not vote and two percent were undecided. 

The poll sampled 1,574 registered voters from November 9-13, and the margin of error (MOE) is plus or minus 2.5 percentage points. 

Trump also continues to dominate the Republican primary, according to the poll. The survey found him leading the field with 64 percent of support among the 686 Republicans and Republican-leaning registered voters polled. He is 48 points ahead of his nearest competitor, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), at 16 percent. 

Former Gov. Nikki Haley (R-SC) has nine percent of support, followed by entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy at four percent, former Gov. Chris Christie (R-NJ) at two percent, and Gov. Doug Burgum (R-ND) at one percent. The MOE for this portion of the poll was plus or minus 3.7 percent. 

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