Prediction Market Gives Donald Trump 93% Chance of Being GOP Nominee, Forecasts Victory over Joe Biden

Polymarket is giving former President Donald Trump a 93 percent chance of becoming the Republican nominee for president, and it is forecasting that he will defeat President Joe Biden in a general election matchup as of Monday afternoon.

Polymarket, which describes itself as “the world’s largest prediction market,” shows Trump with a 93 percent chance of winning the Republican nomination for president.

Republican presidential hopeful Nikki Haley — who refused to say on Sunday if she would support Trump if he is the GOP nominee — only has a four percent chance of becoming the nominee. Another two percent goes to “other,” while entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis — both of whom have backed Trump — have a one percent chance each.

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Meanwhile, the prediction market gives Biden a less likely chance than Trump of being his party’s nominee — 78 percent. The forecast allocates an eight percent chance to California Gov. Gavin Newsom, seven percent chance to Michelle Obama, four percent to Vice President Kamala Harris, and two percent to “other.”

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Overall, Polymarket notes a 78 percent chance of a Trump vs. Biden rematch, although there is a 27 percent chance Biden will drop out of the presidential race.

In a 2024 general election scenario, Trump has a 54 percent chance of winning, compared to 33 percent predicting Biden. Another six percent goes to Michelle Obama, three percent to Newsom, and two percent to independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

The predictions come as Trump moves to the next state, South Carolina, in the GOP primary race, with poll after poll showing him besting Haley by double digits. Further, recent surveys also show Trump leading Biden both nationally and in key swing states, including Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.