Leading Economic Index Falls For 15th Straight Month, Indicating Looming Recession

WASHINGTON, DC - AUGUST 30: U.S. President Joe Biden meets virtually with FEMA Administrat
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The index of leading economic indicators fell 0.7 percent in June, the fifteenth monthly decline, the Conference Board said Thursday.

The leading index uses 10 indicators designed to show whether the economy should be expected to improve or worsen. Seven of the 10 indicators fell in June.

“The Leading Index has been in decline for fifteen months—the longest streak of consecutive decreases since 2007-08, during the runup to the Great Recession. Taken together, June’s data suggests economic activity will continue to decelerate in the months ahead. We forecast that the US economy is likely to be in recession from Q3 2023 to Q1 2024. Elevated prices, tighter monetary policy, harder-to-get credit, and reduced government spending are poised to dampen economic growth further,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board.

A gauge of current economic conditions, known as coincident indicators, was flat in June.


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