Here Come The Boatloads: Will Europe Be Swamped With North African Refugees?

The tiny Italian island of Lampedusa about 160 miles east of Tunisia and is perhaps the closest outpost of European territory to Africa. It’s always been a point that refugees from Africa try to reach. But in recent weeks the numbers have been swelling. Right now more than 7,000 are on the island seeking refugee status in Italy. 2,000 have arrived since Sunday. (Refugee facilities there are built for 800.)

Local women in Lampedusa are so upset by the flood they have chained themselves to a dock to prevent new boats from landing, reports Germany’s Der Spiegel. The stated purpose of intervening in Libya was to prevent the massacre of rebels in Eastern Libya. But if the western intervention only stalemates the situation, we can count of a growing number of Libyans and other North Africans to flee the violence and chaos and head for Europe. What then? Are they going to send them back? Will Gaddafi do what Fidel Castro did in 1980 with the Mariel Boatlift and flood Europe with Libyan criminals?

Italy’s interior minister, Roberto Maroni, has already warned of “a Biblical exodus” from Europe, fearing that perhaps 200,000 to 300,000 will head for Italy. Thus far 16,000 North Africans have arrived. Obama and Sarkozy, who justified intervention on humanitarian grounds, may very well great a larger one if the Libyan civil war continues to grind on with no victor in sight.

Worst case scenario? A geopolitical no-man’s-land in North Africa.