Germany votes Sunday with Chancellor Angela Merkel poised to win a third term, making her Europe’s only major leader to survive its financial crisis but potentially forced into governing with her main rivals.
After shepherding Europe’s top economy through the debt turmoil, Merkel emerged more popular than ever due to her motherly reassurance as the crisis felled leaders in France, Greece, Italy and Spain.
Pollsters suggest that voters will re-elect the 59-year-old, whose nickname “Mutti” (“Mummy”) can seem incongruous with her other often-used description as the world’s most powerful woman.
But the burning question will be with whom she will govern.
Merkel boasts her current centre-right coalition has been Germany’s most successful since reunification in 1990, enjoying a robust economy and a jobless rate of less than seven percent.
But her stated aim for her conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) to stay in power with its junior partners, the pro-business Free Democratic Party (FDP), hinges on the smaller party’s unpredictable fortunes.
If the alliance fails to rally a ruling majority, Merkel could be forced back into the arms of her traditional rivals, the Social Democrats (SPD), with whom she governed in a loveless “grand coalition” during her first term.
Under the watchful eye of Germany’s European partners, a new eurosceptic party, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) could also prove a wild card, either by clawing enough support to send MPs into parliament or wooing disgruntled centre-right voters away.
Three polls in the run-up show the AfD, which advocates ditching the single currency and an “orderly dissolution” of the eurozone, falling below the five-percent hurdle needed to enter parliament.
But some analysts and pollsters have not ruled it out amid fresh Greek aid fears, stressing it is hard to assess the fledgling party’s chances because it has no election track record and supporters may not own up to backing it in surveys.
Merkel again hammered home Europe’s importance for Germany at a last-chance push for votes in Berlin Saturday, saying her country “can only do well in the long term if all of Europe does well”.
Supporters of stronger stimulus measures have pinned their hopes on the SPD whose gaffe-prone candidate Peer Steinbrueck, 66, has struggled to score points and still trailed Merkel’s conservatives by 13 points in the last opinion poll.
A former finance minister in Merkel’s 2005-2009 grand coalition, Steinbrueck has run into trouble during the campaign, most recently with a surly middle-finger front-page photo of him as a non-verbal reply to a question on his stumbling candidacy.
He has zeroed in on the growing low-wage sector and calls for an across-the-board minimum wage, while Merkel favours more flexible pay agreements hammered out between employers and unions, regionally and by sector.
In his final-day stump speech, he urged voters to remove “the most inactive government that has made the most reversals” in over two decades and mocked the famously ideologically flexible Merkel for “going round and round”.
Polls open at 0600 GMT, with initial television estimates expected shortly after booths close at 1600 GMT.