This morning’s key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- NY Times reveals Saddam Hussein had large quantities of WMDs
- Turkey-France meeting signals new confusion in Turkey’s Syria policy
- WHO: Within two months, there may be 10,000 new Ebola cases per week
NY Times reveals Saddam Hussein had large quantities of WMDs
In a seemingly bizarre twist to the history of America’s 2003 groundinvasion of Iraq– which was widely supported at the time but widelydespised later when weapons of mass destruction (WMDs) were not found– an extensive report by the New York Times reveals that Saddam Husseindid, in fact, have large quantities of WMDs, many left over from thepast.
The irony, of course, is that the NY Times led the left tooppose the Iraq war, and was openly aiding and abetting the enemy, ina manner that I considered to be treasonous. (See, for example, “NY Times columnist Thomas Friedman shows ignorance and evasiveness about al-Qaeda in Iraq” from2007.)
The NY Times constantly printed misinformation designed to harm theUnited States and the Bush Administration. They predicted thatPresident Bush’s “surge” would fail, and events proved that they werehistorically wrong.
As I wrote several months ago ( “18-Jun-14 World View — Generational Dynamics historical analysis of the violence in Iraq”), if the Bush administrationhad not ordered the ground invasion, then Iran would have continued tobelieve that Saddam had WMDs, and would have aggressively begun itsown WMD program.
Now the NY Times tells us that Saddam had WMDs after all, which meansthat the Iraq ground invasion was apparently fully justified.
The new concern is that the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (IS orISIS or ISIL) may also find, or have already found, other caches ofWMDs for their own use. NY Times
Turkey-France meeting signals new confusion in Turkey’s Syria policy
On Sunday, the U.S. National Security Advisor Susan Rice said thatTurkey had “made a commitment that they will in the first instanceallow the US and its partners to use Turkish bases and territory,”meaning that U.S. warplanes on bombing runs into Syria could take offfrom and return to Turkey’s Incirlik. On Monday, Turkish officialssaid that Rice was mistaken, and that no such agreement had beenreached.
This is just the next in the unending series of blunders and misstepsby the foreign policy team of Barack Obama, John Kerry, and SusanRice, who might ironically be called “the gang that can’t shootstraight.”
But in this case it also highlights the chaos in Turkey’s own policytowards Syria, as Kobani appears to be close to falling to the IslamicState of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL), despite American-ledairstrikes.
Turkey president Recep Tayyip Erdogan plans to meet with France’spresident François Hollande, as soon as the parties can arrange asuitable date. Hollande has expressed support for Erdogan’s plan toestablish a no-fly zone in Syria, directed at the air force of theBashar al-Assad regime. Erdogan and Turkey have been internationallyisolated over it Syria stance. America and Western countries haverefused to support the no-fly zone because it would put the coalitionin conflict with al-Assad’s forces, and the U.S. has said thatdefeating ISIS is more important than defeating al-Assad. This is aclear disagreement between Turkey and the U.S., and it may now be thecase that France is going to be on the side of Turkey.
Turkey may be opposed to the entire U.S. policy in Syria. Erdogandoesn’t like ISIS, but if they’re willing to fight al-Assad, he’d liketo let them. Erdogan doesn’t like the people who live in Kobani,because they’re Kurds, and Turkish Kurds, in the form of the KurdistanWorkers’ Party (PKK), fought a 30-year insurgency in Turkey, though theinsurgency is currently supposedly in the midst of a “peace process.”In fact, Erdogan refers to both ISIS and the Kurds as beingterrorists. So, really, Erdogan doesn’t really care if ISIS overrunsKobani and massacres the Kurds or not.
Erdogan’s statement of equivalence between ISIS and the PKK is beingcriticized by his political opponents within Turkey. A pro-Kuridishpolitical opponent, Selahattin Demirtas, is pointing out some chaoticcontradictions in Erdogan’s policies:
If you think it [the PKK] is same as ISIS, why areyou seeking a settlement [peace process]? Why is the state holdingtalks with the PKK? ISIS is no party to have negotiationswith. If PKK is like that, you should not have held talks withit. How will you bring back people from the mountains with such anattitude? […]
You [Erdogan] said that Syria was Turkey’s issue, as well as Gaza,Bosnia and Somali, and defended military action there; however,with [Kurdish] Kobani, you said otherwise. If Kobani is notTurkey’s issue, then we [Kurds] are not living in Turkey. If thisis your stance when my brothers are threatened by a group ofrapists and barbarians [ISIS], then you are not ourgovernment.
In fact, the “peace process” with the PKK may be over, anyway. Thereis growing fury among Kurds that Turkey is willing to permit amassacre of Kurds in Kobani. Turkey’s Kurdish population rioted lastweek in cities across the country, and 35 people died in clashes withpolice. And on Tuesday, Turkey’s warplanes bombed PKK bases insoutheastern Turkey, on the Iraq border. These are Turkey’s firstbombing raids since the “peace process” began two years ago, andprobably signal its demise.
It’s possible that the fall of Kobani to ISIS will trigger widespreadKurdish riots in Turkey, forcing Erdogan to fight either ISIS in Syriaor Kurds in Turkey. Cihan (Ankara) and Hurriyet (Istanbul) and Today’s Zaman (Ankara) and VOA
WHO: Within two months, there may be 10,000 new Ebola cases per week
The World Health Organization (WHO) continues to issue warningsto alert the world of the impending Ebola disaster. On Tuesday,a WHO official warned that by mid-December, there could beup to 10,000 new Ebola cases per week, up from 1,000 new casesper week currently.
This is consistent with previous projections that the number of caseshas been growing exponentially, doubling every 2-3 weeks. The WHOofficial didn’t bother to project that 10,000 figure forward, bypointing out that it will be 100,000 per week within a couple moremonths, and continue to grow.
Who also estimated that the death rate was 70%, up from previousestimates of 50% — meaning that 70% of those who get infected aredying. This could mean that 60-70% of Liberia’s population will bedead within a year or so, with the resulting global economic crisesand probable wars, as we described yesterday. CBS News
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iraq, Saddam Hussein, Thomas Friedman,weapons of mass destruction, WMDs,Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL,Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, France, François Hollande,Kurdistan Workers’ Party, PKK, Selahattin DemirtaS,Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Kobani, Susan Rice, Incirlik,World Health Organization, WHO, Ebola, Liberia
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