Wisconsin Polls Show Tight Presidential Race: Clinton Leads Trump by 3-5 Points

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Two polls show the presidential campaign f0r the Badger State’s ten electoral votes now closer than President Barack Obama’s seven-point margin over Republican Mitt Romney in 2012, with Democrat Hillary Clinton leading Republican Donald Trump by five points in the Monmouth University poll and three points in the Marquette University poll.

The Marquette University Law School poll shows Clinton at 45 percent and Trump at 42 percent in the two-way contest. The poll was conducted between August 25 and August 28, with live interviews on both landlines and cell phones and a sample of 650 likely voters. The poll carries a margin of error of five percent.

The four-way contest shows Clinton at 41 percent, Trump at 38, Libertarian Gary Johnson at 10, and Green Party nominee Dr. Jill Stein at 4 percent.

In Marquette’s poll conducted August 4 through August 7, Clinton’s lead was seven points over Trump: Clinton, 47 percent; Trump, 34; Johnson, 9, and Stein at 3 percent.

In the 2012 presidential election, Obama received 53 percent of the vote to Romney’s 46 percent, even though Rep. Paul Ryan, representing Wisconsin’s 1st congressional district was on the GOP ticket running for vice-president–even beating the GOP ticket in Ryan’s own district. In the 2008 presidential campaign, Obama beat Sen. John McCain (R.-Ariz.) with 56 percent of the vote to McCain’s 42 percent.

Although Clinton leads in Wisconsin, her lead in the state, as well as nationally, continues to trail Obama’s percentage of voters.

In the rematch between GOP Sen. Ronald Johnson and the man he unseated six years, Russell Feingold, the Marquette poll had the challenger leading the incumbent 48 percent to 45 percent.

The Monmouth University Polling Institute’s poll shows that Clinton also continues to hold a lead over the New York City developer.

Clinton is the choice of 43 percent; Trump, 38 percent; Johnson, 7 percent; and Stein, 3 percent, according to the survey of 404 likely voters, which carries a margin of error of 4.9 percent that was conducted August 27 through August 30.

In the Monmouth poll, Feingold leads Johnson by a 13-point margin, 54 percent to the senator’s 41 percent.

Pete Meachum, Trump’s Wisconsin state director, told Breitbart News that the state is very much in play for the GOP nominee.

“We have a great ground game in Wisconsin and a winning message,” he stated.

“The voters we hear from understand that Hillary Clinton represents a third Obama term, while the Trump-Pence campaign of tougher law enforcement, stopping illegal immigration, and bringing back jobs is resonating strongly across the state,” he said.

“Wisconsin voters are tired of the same old Washington corruption and back-room deals like the recently revealed Clinton State Department pay-to-play,” Meachum said. “They will vote for change in November.”

Professor Paul Nolette, who teaches at Marquette’s political science department, told Breitbart News the 2016 presidential campaign hinges on the role played by Gov. Scott Walker.

Walker and his opponents have fought an election, then a recall campaign, and then a re-election, which turned Wisconsin into one of the most polarized states in a hyper-polarized nation, he said.

“The state tilts slightly Democratic, but it really is close down the middle,” he said.

Into that environment, Trump and Clinton have effected shifts in an otherwise fixed electorate, Nolette stated.

“One of the big shifts that we have seen in the key demographics that I am looking at both here in Wisconsin and nationally is Trump is doing better than Romney with white men without college, particularly working in blue collar professions,” he said.

“On the Hillary Clinton side, one really big shift, especially compared to 2008 and 2012, has been with white women with college degrees,” he said. “This tends to be kind of a swing group, maybe a little Republican in the past, such as with Romney, but this time is overwhelmingly supporting Clinton.”

The swing of college-educated women to Clinton is a critical blow to the GOP in the Milwaukee suburbs that are the backbone of the Republican turnout model, he said.

The professor said Trump also has problems with other Republicans.

“In Wisconsin and nationally, Clinton has done a better job getting Democrats behind her than Trump getting Republicans to back him,” said the professor at the Milwaukee school.

“It has been remarkable how little Paul Ryan has done to support Trump in the presidential race here,” he asserted.

Nolette said that like other prominent Republicans, such as Ryan, Walker has not fully committed to supporting the Trump campaign in Wisconsin as these shifts occurred, but it is not too late.

“A lot of them have been keeping out of it as much as they possibly can,” he said.

If Walker gets involved, he can bring Republicans home, he said. “Walker’s role–if he really goes full-out for Trump down the stretch–then, one potential effect would be to get more of the Republicans, maybe grudgingly, to back Trump.”


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