Most pollsters, including all the media pollsters, blew 2016 and really blew 2020, and now they’re blaming former President Donald Trump for their own failure.
Something called the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) released a report this week that admits 2020 national polling was the worst in 40 years and state polling was the worst in the history of state polling.
The far-left Politico reports the AAPOR is blaming – you guessed it – Trump [emphasis added]:
The most plausible — yet still unproven — theory is that the voters the polls are reaching are fundamentally different from those they are not. And Trump’s rantings about the polls being “fake” or rigged only exacerbate that problem.
“If the voters most supportive of Trump were least likely to participate in polls then the polling error may be explained as follows: Self-identified Republicans who choose to respond to polls are more likely to support Democrats and those who choose not to respond to polls are more likely to support Republicans,” the report reads. “Even if the correct percentage of self-identified Republicans were polled, differences in the Republicans who did and did not respond could produce the observed polling error.”
Oh, okay, guys… Then please explain to me why some pollsters got it pretty close to correct in 2016 and 2020?
Nowhere in Politico’s write-up of this pile-of-shit autopsy does anyone acknowledge the handful of pollsters who came out of 2020 looking pretty good. Among them, are Rasmussen, Trafalgar, and IBD/TIPP.
Obviously, someone knows how to poll even with all those mean Trumptards out there looking to screw up the polling game.
Good grief, this is not difficult.
We all know the problem, we all know the answer to the problem, and still, the pompously named AAPOR is pretending no one knows how to poll in TrumpLand, and nothing will ever improve.
Honestly, how hard would it be to mimic the methodology of pollsters who did it right in 2020? Not hard at all. But nowhere in the Politico report does anyone suggest that pretty gosh-darned simple idea (the far-left Politico sure doesn’t) because these serial liars aren’t interested in getting it right.
Even now, even after two presidential cycles of poll debacles, these godforsaken liars still refuse to do what’s necessary to get it right. And we all know why. Just like their establishment media allies, getting it right is not the goal. Instead, the goal is to manipulate public opinion, shape news cycles, justify narratives, and deceive everyday Americans into believing they’re all alone out there when they’re not.
Remember how popular gay marriage was in all those polls?
Remember how gay marriage went down in flames almost every time it was put on a ballot, including in the People’s Republic of California?
From the Politico report, here’s the cold hard truth: “While the national polls were the worst in four decades, the state-level polls of the presidential, Senate and gubernatorial races were as bad as they’ve been as far back as there are records (20 years).”
State polling was the worst on record. The worst ever, in other words, and will you listen to these dishonest babies run around in a helpless puppy-dog circle:
After the 2016 election, AAPOR’s autopsy blamed that year’s polling errors on a number of different factors. First, the organization said, a larger-than-usual number of undecided voters measured in polls flocked toward Trump disproportionately at the very end of the race, giving him an advantage that would be impossible to measure beforehand.
But 2020’s error can’t be blamed on late deciders: Only 4 percent of voters weren’t behind one of the two major candidates in state polls conducted over the final two weeks, and exit polls suggest late-deciding voters split roughly evenly between Biden and Trump.
Another of the 2016 problems — the failure of many pollsters to weight by education — wasn’t to blame last year, either, the report said. Four years earlier, many pollsters adjusted their results to get the right mix of voters by race and gender. But that missed a key, emerging dynamic in the electorate: Increasingly, white voters with college degrees have supported Democrats, while those who didn’t graduate from college rapidly flocked toward Republicans. Studies show voters without college degrees are less likely to participate in polls.
To recap… Polling, most especially media polling, is a total fraud, has been exposed as a total fraud, the public knows it’s a total fraud, and now the pollsters are pretending they have no idea how to fix it just so they can keep committing their left-wing fraud.