Poll: Iowans Choose Donald Trump over Joe Biden by Double Digits in 2024 Matchup

donald trump
AP/Charlie Neibergall

Iowans overwhelming choose former President Donald Trump over President Biden in a hypothetical 2024 matchup, a Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll survey released over the weekend found.

Trump leads Biden by 11 percentage points, 51 percent to 40 percent, among Iowans in a hypothetical 2024 presidential matchup. In that scenario, five percent of respondents remain unsure, and four percent say they would not vote. 

According to the Des Moines Register, Trump’s lead “appears to be driven by support among independents” as they favor the former president 45 percent to Biden’s 37 percent:

While Trump defeated Biden handily in the Hawkeye State in the 2020 election — 53.1 percent to 44.9 percent — the state has a lengthy history of jumping back and forth between blue and red. While it went for Trump in both 2016 and 2020, it went to former President Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012.

The survey’s findings come as Biden experiences another low in approval ratings, as just 33 percent of Iowans approve of his job performance. 

The survey, taken November 7-10, 2021, among 810 Iowa adults, has a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percent. 

Recent surveys have shown a similar pattern — Trump leading or tied with Biden in hypothetical 2024 matchups. 

An Emerson College survey released this month, for example, found Trump leading Biden 45 percent to 43 percent, while a Redfield & Wilton Strategies survey found the two potential challengers in the midst of a dead heat, each garnering 42 percent:

Similarly, an October I&I/TIPP poll found Trump leading Biden in every single U.S. region, minus the northeast. Despite that, in that survey, Trump edged out Biden in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup, 45 percent to 44 percent. 

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