Poll: Trump Leads Biden in 2024 Presidential Matchup

WEST HOLLYWOOD, CALIFORNIA - SEPTEMBER 29: People sit and watch a broadcast of the first debate between President Donald Trump and Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden at The Abbey, with socially distanced outdoor seating, on September 29, 2020 in West Hollywood, California. The debate being held in Cleveland, Ohio is …
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Former President Trump leads President Biden in a hypothetical 2024 presidential matchup, an Emerson College survey released Friday found.

The survey, taken November 3-4, 2021, among 1,000 registered voters, asked respondents, “If the 2024 Presidential Election were held today, and the candidates were Donald Trump and Joe Biden, who would you vote for at this time?”

Trump has the edge, leading Biden 45 percent to 43 percent. However, the lead is within the survey’s +/- 3 percent margin of error. 

Another 11 percent indicated they would vote for “someone else,” and one percent remain undecided:

Suburban voters are split: 42% support Donald Trump while 43% support Joe Biden. Rural voters break for Trump 62% to 30%, while urban voters opt for Biden 52% to 36%.

When voters were asked if they would vote for the Democratic or Republican congressional candidate if the 2022 midterm election were held today, a plurality (49%) of voters said they would vote for the Republican candidate, while 42% would vote Democrat, and 9% are undecided.

“With over a tenth of voters voicing support for someone else in another Trump-Biden match-up, 2024 could perhaps witness a third party candidate reaching the required 15 percent support to get on the debate stage,” Emerson College Polling Director Spencer Kimball observed. 

The survey coincides with Biden’s plummeting approval ratings across the board, landing in the negatives in poll after poll. Notably, the Emerson College poll found Biden losing double-digit support among black voters, specifically, dropping 20 points — 72 percent to 52 percent — since February.

Similarly, a Redfield & Wilton strategies survey released last week showed Trump and Biden in a dead heat in a hypothetical 2024 matchup, each garnering 42 percent support:

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