AZ Poll: Republican Blake Masters Closes in on Democrat Mark Kelly; Lake, Hobbs Tied

Mark Kelly, right, and Black Masters (Courtney Pedroza, Bill Clark/Getty Images)
Courtney Pedroza, Bill Clark/Getty Images

Republican Blake Masters is rapidly closing in on Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) in Arizona’s race for the U.S. Senate, while Republican Kari Lake and Katie Hobbs are tied in the gubernatorial race, a poll has found.

Emerson College Polling released the poll Friday showing that 45 percent of likely voters support Masters, who is endorsed by former President Donald J. Trump, while 47 percent back Kelly. Another four percent plan to vote for another candidate, and five percent are still undecided and up for grabs.

Masters has consistently closed the gap and is within the margin of error after polling 8 points behind Kelly in a Fox News poll and 3.3 points back in a Trafalgar Group poll, both of which came out last month. While the Trafalgar poll indicated he was banging on Kelly’s door, Emerson’s numbers show he is knocking it off the hinges.

“A stark gender divide exists in the Arizona Senate Election; men break for Masters by a 10-point margin whereas women voters break for Kelly by 13,” said Spencer Kimball, the executive director of Emerson College Polling. “Additionally, Independent voters favor Kelly over Masters, 46% to 37%.”

Kelly and Masters are set to square off in a PBS-hosted debate on October 6.

Concerning the gubernatorial race, Lake and her Democrat opponent Katie Hobbs, who serves as Arizona’s secretary of state and is dodging a debate, are tied. Both candidates are polling at 46 percent among likely voters. The remaining eight percent support another candidate or are undecided, at two percent and six percent, respectively.

Lake held a one-point lead over Hobbs in the Trafalgar Group poll from August, and an RMG Research poll from the same month gave her a two-point lead. While Kelly caved to pressure and accepted a debate with Masters, Hobbs is working feverishly to not debate Lake. The pair attended a forum hosted by the Arizona Chamber of Commerce and Industry Wednesday night but did not share the stage. Hobbs fielded questions first, followed by Lake.

Before taking questions, Lake said that she penned a letter to the Arizona Clean Elections Commission (CEC) stating she  “will not agree to a forum that [her] opponent wants,” adding that she was “doing that tonight.”

Hobbs proposed a similar format to the CEC in place of a future debate with Lake, but the commission announced Thursday that it had voted down her proposal.

“[T]he campaigns of Katie Hobbs and Kari Lake 7 days to find an acceptable format to both parties,” the CEC added.

Emerson College Polling sampled 627 likely voters between September 6-7. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.85 percentage points.


Please let us know if you're having issues with commenting.