PA Poll: Republicans Dr. Mehmet Oz, Doug Mastriano 2 Points Back of Democrat Opponents

Republicans Dr. Mehmet Oz and State Sen. Doug Mastriano are quickly gaining on their Democrat opponents in Pennsylvania’s U.S. Senate and gubernatorial races, according to a poll.

The Trafalgar Group poll, released Friday, shows Fetterman’s lead over Oz has dwindled to under two points, indicating the Republican is picking up momentum in the race.  Of the likely voter respondents, 45.9 percent say they are supporting Oz, while 47.7 percent back Fetterman, the state’s lieutenant governor. Another 3.5 percent say they plan to vote for Libertarian Erik Gerhardt, and 2.4 percent remain undecided.

New independent @trafalgar_group
#PASen #Poll (9/13-15) shows neck&neck race w/small #Fetterman lead #papol:

47.7% @JohnFetterman
45.9% @DrOz
3.5% @Erik4Senate
0.5%   Other
2.4%   Und

See Report: https://t.co/7fkeZ6WDcu pic.twitter.com/OzLPjxw6w8

— Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) September 16, 2022

Oz has made gains since last month’s Trafalgar Group poll on the Pennsylvania Senate race, which showed him within five points of Fetterman, at 43.5 percent and 48.4 percent, respectively.

Fetterman’s fall in the polls coincided with recent reports that brought to light his past comments that the state could empty a third of prisoners out onto the streets and “not make anyone less safe.” It has also been accompanied by reports on his role as chair of the board of pardons, which was apparently radicalized under his leadership. Additionally, Fetterman suffered a stroke in May and has faced mounting pressure from national and local media to debate Oz. He recently gave in and agreed to a debate that will take place on October 25, long after voting begins.

The poll shows that Mastriano is also rapidly gaining on Democrat Attorney General Josh Shapiro in the governor’s race and is within the margin of error. The state senator is backed by 45.4 percent of likely voters, placing him exactly two points behind Shapiro at 47.4 percent. Only 2.8 percent of those polled plan to vote for Libertarian candidate Matt Hackenburg while another 2.8 remain undecided, and 1.5 percent support another candidate. Last month’s numbers from the polling group showed Mastriano 3.9 percentage points behind his opponent.

New independent @trafalgar_group
#PAGov #Poll (9/13-15) shows tightening w/narrow Shapiro lead #papol:

47.4% @JoshShapiroPA
45.4% @dougmastriano
2.8% @matthackenburg
1.5%   Other
2.8%   Und

See Report: https://t.co/KQ3LNKJsnd pic.twitter.com/D1HEHGR7EP

— The Trafalgar Group (@trafalgar_group) September 16, 2022

The poll sampled 1078 likely voters from September 13-15 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. Female participants account for 52.8 percent of respondents, and a plurality of respondents (46.7 percent) are Democrats, while 42.7 percent are Republicans. Just over ten percent do not have a party affiliation.