Poll: Donald Trump Leads Joe Biden Among Independents

trump leads
Brandon Bell/Getty Images, AP Photo/Alex Brandon
Hannah Knudsen

Former President Donald Trump leads President Joe Biden among independents, a recent survey from The Economist/YouGov found.

The survey asked respondents who they would support in the 2024 presidential election, and overall, it showed Biden with a one-point edge over Trump — 42 percent to the former president’s 41 percent support. In last week’s Economist/YouGov poll Biden led Trump by two points.

The survey provided a demographic breakdown, which showed Trump boasting an advantage among independent voters. He leads Biden by nine points there — 37 percent to 28 percent. That marks a significant jump for Trump, as he led independents by just two points the week prior.

Fourteen percent of independents said other, twelve percent said they would not vote, and nine percent said they are unsure.

When asked who they believe will be the winner of a presidential election between Biden and Trump, regardless of their personal preference, 44 percent, overall, said Trump, compared to 35 percent who said Biden. Independents are also more confident that Trump would win, 44 percent to Biden’s 25 percent.

Eleven percent of Democrats believe Trump would win, while six percent of Republicans believe Biden would win.

The survey was taken December 2-5, 2023, among 1,500 adult American citizens. It comes as surveys show Trump besting Biden in key swing states in hypothetical head-to-head matchups. A Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll released in November also showed Trump besting Biden in battleground states.

As Breitbart News detailed in November:

In hypothetical head-to-head matchups, Trump leads Biden to varying degrees in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, while they tie in Michigan. 

When independent presidential candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West are added to the pool, Trump maintains his leads over Biden. However, the president takes a slim advantage in Michigan. 

The poll finds that Trump holds a four-point lead over Biden in a hypothetical head-to-head race in Arizona. Of the 800 registered voter respondents, 46 percent would back Trump, and 42 percent would support Biden. Another four percent of Arizona voters wouldn’t vote, while eight percent are undecided. 

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