Left-Wing Poll: Donald Trump Leads Joe Biden in Swing States Pennsylvania and Nevada

Trump and Biden
Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images; Julia Nikhinson/CNP/Bloomberg via Getty Images
Katherine Hamilton

Former President Donald Trump is leading President Joe Biden in two crucial swing states ahead of the 2024 presidential election, a new left-leaning poll found.

Future Majority/Change Research, which tends to overestimate Democrat candidates, surveyed 2,532 voters in Nevada and Pennsylvania, as well as some competitive New York congressional districts from December 3-7. The pollster found that Trump is six points ahead of Biden in Pennsylvania, 46 percent to 40 percent, and four points ahead of him in Nevada, 44 percent to 40 percent.

The new report includes the pollster’s previous insights, showing that the 2022 Pennsylvania electorate had 0.6 points fewer Biden voters than in 2020. The 2022 Nevada electorate had 2.3 points fewer Biden voters than in 2020.

The results are significant, given that Trump won Pennsylvania in 2016 and lost in 2020, as well as lost Nevada in both 2016 and 2020. Pennsylvania voters favored Democrats in the 2022 Senate and gubernatorial races, and in Nevada, Democrats held a three-point advantage in 2020 and narrowly reelected Democrat Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto in 2022. However, Nevadans ousted incumbent Democrat Gov. Steve Sisolak in favor of Republican Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo.

Other recent polling has shown Trump leading in seven swing states, including Pennsylvania and Nevada.

A December poll from Bloomberg News/Morning Consult found Trump leading Biden 46 percent to 44 percent, within the survey’s ± three percent margin of error. The same poll showed Trump leading Biden 47 percent to 44 percent, within that category’s ± five percent margin of error.

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