Poll: Trump Topples Biden in Several Key Swing States as More Voters Believe He Would Emerge the Victor

Republican presidential candidate and former President Donald Trump arrives to speak at a
AP Photo/Andrew Harnik
Hannah Knudsen

Former President Donald Trump is leading President Joe Biden in several key swing states — including Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania — and more of these voters believe Trump would emerge as the victor in a head-to-head matchup than Biden, a Redfield & Wilton Strategies survey released Monday found.

The survey asked a total of 6,029 swing state voters, “If the candidates for the Presidential Election on November 5, 2024, are as follows, for whom will you vote?”

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The survey listed Trump, Biden, independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and provided various options for “other” candidates, including the libertarian and Green Party candidates.

In Arizona, Trump leads Biden by six points, boasting 41 percent to Biden’s 35 percent. RFK Jr. garners ten percent in that state.

Trump has an 11-point lead in Florida, leading Biden 45 percent to 34 percent. Kennedy garners nine percent support in the Sunshine State.

In Georgia, Trump leads Biden by eight points, garnering 42 percent to the 81-year-old’s 34 percent support. Kennedy sees eight percent support in the Peach State.

Trump sees a smaller lead in Michigan but a lead nonetheless, boasting a two-point advantage over Biden — 39 percent to Biden’s 37 percent support, followed by 9 percent for Kennedy.

In North Carolina, Trump leads Biden by four points, and Trump has a one-point edge in Pennsylvania:

Perhaps what is more surprising is the fact that the sentiments among swing state votes — regardless of their personal preference — side with Trump. When asked who they expect to win in a matchup between Trump and Biden, the gap in Trump’s favor grows even more. In Pennsylvania, for instance, 44 percent believe Trump would win. That is 11 points more than the 33 percent who believe Biden would win in that particular state. That figure is even greater in Arizona, where Trump leads Biden by 14 points among voters who believe Trump will emerge victorious rather than Biden. In Florida and North Carolina, Trump has an 11-point advantage, and in Georgia, 39 percent believe Trump would win, compared to 33 percent who said the same of Biden. In Michigan, Trump has a seven-point advantage on this specific question:

More generally speaking, the survey found Biden rather than Trump suffering more from Kennedy’s participation in the race.

Per Redfield & Wilton Strategies:

More Biden 2020 than Trump 2020 voters say they would vote for Robert F. Kennedy Jr. if he was a candidate in all six states polled. In fact, three times as many Biden 2020 as Trump 2020 voters would vote for RFK Jr. in Florida (13% vs 4%) while in Georgia, more than six times as many (13% vs 2%) say they would do so.

The survey was taken December 28-30, among 6.029 swing state voters and follows several others also showing Trump leading in swing states over the past few months, including a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll released in November, which found Trump leading Biden in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, and tying in Michigan:

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