Polymarket is giving former President Donald Trump a higher chance of winning the 2024 presidential election than President Joe Biden.
As of Wednesday, just short of a month after Biden’s partisan State of the Union address, Polymarket, which is described as “the world’s largest prediction market,” showed Biden with just a 42 percent chance of winning the 2024 presidential election. It showed Trump, who effectively secured the GOP nomination after Nikki Haley dropped out following a string of losses after Super Tuesday, with a 49 percent chance of victory.
Every other individual is in the single digits. For instance, it shows former First Lady Michelle Obama and Vice President Kamala Harris both with a two percent chance of winning the 2024 presidential election. Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. garners a five percent chance. One percent goes to a generic Democrat politician.
In March, Michelle Obama’s office released a statement, affirming that she is not interested in running for president, despite the mounting speculation given rising concerns about Biden’s age, 81, and health — both physical and mental.
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“As former First Lady Michelle Obama has expressed several times over the years, she will not be running for president,” Crystal Carson, director of communications for Obama’s office, said, adding that Michelle “supports President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris’ re-election campaign.”
The prediction market results coincide with a March Rasmussen Reports poll showing 57 percent of Democrat voters oppose Congress certifying the 2024 presidential election if Trump emerges as the victor. It also comes as Democrats sound the alarm over the conservative push to switch Nebraska to a winner-take-all state.
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