A new statewide poll shows Louisiana Treasurer John Fleming overtaking incumbent Sen. Bill Cassidy in the Republican U.S. Senate primary, marking a sharp reversal from previous surveys just six months ahead of the 2026 primary election.

According to polling conducted October 15–17, 2025, by JMC Analytics and Polling, Fleming leads the field of announced and expected Republican candidates with 25 percent support, narrowly ahead of Cassidy at 23 percent. The remaining five tested candidates together accounted for 17 percent, while 35 percent of respondents remain undecided.

In a projected head-to-head runoff, Fleming expanded his advantage over Cassidy to 40–29 percent, up from 36–29 in the previous poll. Thirty-one percent of voters remain undecided in that matchup. The survey of 610 likely Republican primary voters was conducted through a hybrid method—67 percent by text and 33 percent by live phone calls—and carries a 4.0 percent margin of error. Respondents were 70 percent Republican and 30 percent unaffiliated, with a demographic breakdown of 93 percent white, 4 percent black, and 3 percent other.

The poll was conducted across Louisiana’s major media markets, including Baton Rouge (21 percent), Lafayette (15 percent), New Orleans (33 percent), and Shreveport (10 percent). It follows the recent dissolution of the state’s Independent Party, with its former members now counted as “no party” voters.

The results come as Fleming’s campaign emphasizes its grassroots foundation, boasting over 200 volunteers and more than 10,000 signs across the state. His rise in the polls continues despite heavy advertising from Cassidy and outside groups.

Fleming, a Navy veteran, physician, businessman, and current state treasurer, previously served eight years in the U.S. House of Representatives representing Louisiana’s 4th District. A founding member of the House Freedom Caucus, he helped craft conservative legislation promoting limited government and constitutional accountability.

After leaving Congress, Fleming joined the Trump administration as Deputy Assistant Secretary of Health and Human Services, later serving as Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Economic Development and as Deputy Chief of Staff in the White House from 2020 to 2021.

In 2023, Donald Trump endorsed Fleming in his successful bid for state treasurer, part of a sweep of Trump-backed Republican candidates in Louisiana’s statewide elections.

Cassidy, meanwhile, has drawn sustained backlash from Republican voters for voting to convict President Donald Trump during his second impeachment trial following the January 6 Capitol riot, a move that aligned him with Senate Democrats. In subsequent interviews, Cassidy said Trump “cannot win a general election” and cited Republican losses in swing states as proof. He also stated in 2023 that special counsel Jack Smith’s classified documents case against Trump was “almost a slam dunk” and in 2024  described the president’s “bloodbath” remark at an Ohio rally as “concerning” to voters.