The data-driven Sen. Ted Cruz campaign is carefully targeting about a dozen Congressional Districts in New York State where it may have an opportunity to hold Donald Trump’s vote total below the all-important, winner-take-all 50 percent margin in next Tuesday’s GOP primary.
Cruz doesn’t expect to come close to beating Trump overall in the Empire State, and may not even think he has a chance to keep the Manhattan billionaire below the 50 percent mark statewide.
But Cruz can further advance the narrative that the Trump campaign is losing steam if he’s able to bring Trump’s delegate total below the 75 of 95 available Breitbart currently anticipates he will earn in the state.
All 14 delegates elected statewide will be allocated to the winner, provided he exceeds 50 percent of the vote. The remaining 81 delegates will be allocated on the same basis, with 3 delegates selected from each of the state’s 27 Congressional Districts.
Once the winner, statewide or in a Congressional District, drops below 50 percent, delegates are allocated proportionally.
While Cruz himself is aggressively campaigning in California on Monday, his wife and top surrogate, Heidi Cruz, is hitting three retail campaign events in different Long Island and one in Queens the same day. Switching some votes in those areas might move the needle a few points in Cruz’s direction–enough to keep Trump below the magic 50 percent number. And if Cruz can pass the 20 percent threshold, he can earn delegates while losing the state overall.
Heidi will be attending “meet and greets” in Mineola, Melville, and Bellmore on Long Island, followed by a scheduled appearance at the Queens County Republican Spring Gala in Flushing Meadows Monday evening, which Breitbart News confirmed with one of the event organizers.
The most recent Fox News Poll of New York gives Trump a big lead: 54 percent to second place John Kasich’s 22 percent, with third place Cruz trailing badly at 15 percent.
But as a recent Monmouth University Poll suggests, Trump may already be below the magic 50 percent number in as many as five key Congressional Districts in Western New York (23 through 27), where he only pulled in 48 percent support compared to a statewide 52 percent.
Trump could win more than 50 percent statewide but still slip below the 75 delegates-won mark if he falls below 50 percent in a dozen Congressional districts and both Kasich and Cruz surpass the 20 percent threshold in those districts.
The real estate billionaire and GOP front runner has a big rally scheduled in Albany, New York Monday night. His rally in Rochester on Sunday drew a huge crowd, estimated by organizers at 9,000.
The only other event currently on his agenda is a rally on Wednesday in Pittsburgh. The Pennsylvania GOP primary, where 71 delegates are at stake, will be held on Tuesday, April 26, one week after the New York primary.
The statewide winner in the Keystone State will receive 17 delegates, with the remaining 54 delegates allocated to the winner in each of the 18 Congressional Districts.