Judge Roy Moore holds a commanding lead in the Alabama Senate race and has “united” local Republicans behind him, according to a poll released Tuesday — data that crushes the establishment narrative that Moore is a divisive figure who may botch a winnable election.
The poll, first reported by Politico, was put out in a polling memo by the McConnell-backed Senate Leadership Fund which campaigned vigorously for Moore’s primary rival Sen. Luther Strange (R-AL). But, despite warnings from establishment voices that Moore was too extreme and could cost the GOP a safe seat, the poll shows the exact opposite.
The Axis Research poll shows the race is looking “less and less competitive” and gives Moore a 17-point lead over Democratic challenger Doug Jones.
“Not only is nearly half of the electorate (49%) DEFINITELY voting for Roy Moore, the data shows Moore has united the Republican Party following the Republican primary and the Republican run-off, and earns strong support throughout the conservative coalition,” the memo says.
It notes that Moore has a stronger lead over Jones than shown for the generic Republican against a generic Democrat — suggesting that Moore is doing better than would be expected for a more conventional Republican candidate.
This conclusion is supported by other polling data that finds that an anti-establishment agenda is at the top of Alabama voters’ priorities:
“Voters in Alabama remained focused on two things, which also drove preferences and vote behavior in the 2016 elections: moral values and changing Washington,” the memo says. “The prioritization of these two areas also continues to drive high marks for President Trump.”
Consequently, Trump has a 57 percent approval rating in the state, with 45 percent giving him “strong” approval.
The Senate Leadership Fund pumped millions into Strange’s doomed campaign. After Moore’s victory, the group announced that it would not be spending any money, but presented this exit as confidence in Moore’s victory.
“This is Alabama, not New York or California,” SLF spokesman Chris Pack told AL.com. “Democrats would first need to demonstrate this is an actual race before anything is considered.”
The Axis poll was conducted from October 24-26, 503 people were interviewed and the margin of error was 4.47 percent.
The results are at odds with a Fox News poll this month that showed Moore and Jones tied at 42 percent, with 11 percent of voters undecided.
Adam Shaw is a Breitbart News politics reporter based in New York. Follow Adam on Twitter: @AdamShawNY