Experts in both Japan and the U.S. anticipate half of Japan’s workforce to be replaced by artificial intelligence by 2035.
Led by Yumi Wakao, analysts from Nomura Research Institute studied and calculated the probability of automation of over 600 occupations. They determined that machines or software would claim jobs such as agricultural labor, operating helpdesks, and delivering goods, while more creativity-dependent occupations such as teaching and writing would remain safe a little longer.
NRI isn’t the first to question the risk of losing occupations to artificial intelligence. Michael Osborne, a professor of Oxford University, researched the probability of future computerization of over 700 jobs, in both the U.S. and U.K., determining the risks to be 47% and 35% respectively — all too close to Japan’s 49%.
While the “hypothetical calculation… doesn’t take into account social factors,” according to Wakao, many in Japan already welcome the idea. As the country’s population rapidly ages, computerization of mechanically-based occupations would bring much needed relief of a growing reduction in available workforce and allow for its citizens to more fully embrace creativity-based careers.