Poll: Trump’s Lead over DeSantis Grows Ten Points in Two Weeks

Former President Donald Trump continues to dominate the Republican primary field as his lead over Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) has grown ten points in two weeks, according to a YouGov/Economist poll. 

The survey, published Wednesday, shows that 54 percent of registered Republicans and independents who plan to vote in their state’s Republican presidential primary back Trump. He has climbed six points since another YouGov/Economist poll taken between July 8-11. 

2024 National Republican Primary:

Trump 54% (+36)
DeSantis 18%
Ramaswamy 6%
Pence 3%
Haley 3%
Scott 3%
Christie 1%
Suarez 0%
Burgum 0%
Elder 0%
Hutchinson 0%
Hurd 0%

.@YouGovAmerica/@TheEconomist, 498 RV, 7/22-25https://t.co/xd3AA4t7wH

— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) July 26, 2023

Trump stands 36 points ahead of DeSantis, who registers at 18 percent. DeSantis has fallen off 4 points compared to a few weeks ago, when he garnered 22 percent support. The movement between the top two candidates marks a net gain of ten points to Trump’s lead over DeSantis this month. 

Entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, who has surged in several recent national polls, has six percent support, which is good enough for third place. He has climbed four points in recent weeks, marking the largest increase in support in the field outside of Trump. 

Former President Mike Pence, former Gov. Nikki Haley (R-SC), and Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) tie at three percent, while one percent say they would vote for former Gov. Chris Christie (R-NJ). No other candidate secured a percentage point. Another nine percent are undecided, while three percent said they would sit out the primary. 

The poll also gauged second choices among primary voters, finding that a plurality of 29 percent sees DeSantis as a backup plan. While he leads the field in this regard, 34 percent said DeSantis was their second choice in the July 8-11 poll, serving as further evidence he continues to fall out of favor with primary voters. 

Trump holds the second-largest share of second-choice supporters at 12 percent, followed by Ramaswamy and Scott at 11 percent. Another six percent view Pence and five percent Haley as a second choice.  

In a hypothetical rematch of the 2020 election, President Joe Biden holds a four-point lead over Trump among registered voters, at 44 percent and 40 percent, respectively, in this poll. 

YouGov sampled 1,500 U.S. adults, including 1,306 registered voters, between July 22-25, and the Republican primary sample included 498 registered voters.  The margin of error among registered voters is plus or minus three percent, while it is 2.8 percent when adjusted for weighting.