Poll: Joe Biden Holds Slim Lead over Donald Trump in Virginia, Where Former President Plans to Make ‘Heavy Play’

Joe Biden and Donald Trump
Kevin Dietsch, Alexi J. Rosenfeld/Getty Images
Nick Gilbertson

President Joe Biden holds just a three-point advantage over former President Donald Trump in Virginia — a state Trump plans to make a “heavy play” for, assuming he wins the nomination — in a hypothetical two-way general election race, according to a Virginia Commonwealth University (VCU) poll. 

The poll, published on Tuesday, shows that 43 percent of the 812 registered voter respondents would back Biden versus 40 percent who would support Trump. Four percent would vote for someone else, five percent would not vote, and six percent would remain undecided. Biden’s lead falls within the plus or minus 5.46 percent margin of error, and interviews were conducted from December 28, 2023, to January 13, 2024.

The slim lead illustrates Biden’s weakness as the general election rapidly approaches and could unofficially begin Tuesday night, depending on the results of the New Hampshire Republican primary. For reference, in 2020, Biden carried Virginia with 54.1 percent of the vote, while Trump garnered 44 percent. This poll marks a seven-point swing in favor of Trump since the 2020 election. 

The 2020 race followed a more competitive contest between Trump and twice-failed presidential candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016. Clinton won in Virginia that year by a margin of 49.8 percent to 44.4 percent. 

The poll also gauged the performance of Trump’s last remaining GOP primary opponent, former Gov. Nikki Haley (R-SC), finding she leads Biden 43 percent to 38 percent in a hypothetical race. However, her longshot bid could hit a crossroads in New Hampshire on Tuesday after Trump’s dominating Iowa Caucuses win and the consolidation of the field on January 15. 

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Margo Martin via Storyful

A promising sign for the GOP was the off-year 2021 elections in the Old Dominion State, where Republicans swept statewide races. Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R-VA) won his race by nearly two points over former Gov. Terry McCauliffe (D-VA). At the same time, Republicans also swept the lieutenant governor race and the attorney general contest. Democrats held all three offices going into that election.

In an exclusive interview with Breitbart News Editor-in-Chief Alex Marlow and Breitbart News Washington Bureau Chief Matthew Boyle in late December — which produced a plethora of stories and dominated news cycles — Trump said he planned to broaden the scope of swing states in 2024 if he is the nominee. Specifically, he looks to go on offense in states where Republicans have not won presidential elections in years. 

“One of the other things I’m going to do — and I may be foolish in doing it — is I’m going to make a heavy play for New York, heavy play for New Jersey, heavy play for Virginia, heavy play for New Mexico, and a heavy play for a state that hasn’t been won in years, Minnesota,” Trump said. 

He even floated renting out the iconic Madison Square Garden in Midtown Manhattan for a rally, calling it “the belly of the beast.” 

Interestingly, Siena College released a poll on Monday showing Trump has surged in a hypothetical head-to-head match-up and is now within single digits of the president following a 13-point swing in seven months. While Biden led by 22 points at 50 percent and 28 percent, respectively, in June’s Siena College poll, he now leads Trump 46 percent to 37 percent, as Breitbart News noted. 

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