Poll: Vulnerable Biden Holds Single-Digit Lead over Surging Trump in New York

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AP Photo/Alex Brandon
Nick Gilbertson

President Joe Biden has just a single-digit advantage over former President Donald Trump in blue New York, according to a Siena College poll released Monday, which comes after the 45th president told Breitbart News he plans to broaden the 2024 electoral battleground map to include the Empire State.

The poll found that Biden leads Trump 46 percent to 37 percent in a hypothetical head-to-head general election race. Trump has surged substantially since June’s Siena College poll, when he was 22 points behind Biden at 28 percent and 50 percent, respectively. By August, Biden’s support dropped to 47 percent while Trump’s climbed to 34 percent. All in all, Trump has enjoyed a 13-point swing his way in seven months in a state Biden won by 23 points in 2020, per the poll.

Interestingly, Trump crushes Biden among independents and third-party voters by a margin of 45 percent to 26 percent while also drawing an impressive 13 percent of Democrat support. Meanwhile, ten percent of Republican poll respondents said they would cross over to vote for Biden.

Biden has a substantial edge with New York City voters; a majority of 54 percent support him, while 29 percent back Trump. Conversely, suburban voters slightly break for Trump (44 percent to 41 percent), and the leading Republican and Democrat candidates are neck and neck with upstate voters.

Among black voters, Biden has a 54 percent to 24 percent advantage, though this is a welcome number for the former president. USA Today reported in early January that Trump had received 12 percent of the black vote nationally in 2020, meaning at least in New York, he is currently twice as popular with the demographic than he was on the national scale in 2020, according to the poll.

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When the field is expanded to include third-party presidential candidates, the margin between Trump and Biden remains at nine percentage points. Biden leads the way with 41 percent, followed by the 45th president at 32 percent, and independent Robert F Kennedy, Jr at 13 percent. Third-party candidate Cornel West garners three percent.

Trump greatly outperforms a Republican on a generic congressional ballot. When asked to choose between a generic Democrat or a Republican for Congress, the Democrats led 49 percent to 32 percent, nearly double the margin between Trump and Biden.

The poll sampled 807 registered voters in New York State from January 14-17, and the margin of error is plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.

Speaking with Breitbart News Editor-in-Chief Alex Marlow and Washington Bureau Chief Matthew Boyle in late December in an exclusive interview — which produced a plethora of breaking news stories that dominated national news coverage — Trump said he plans to make a “heavy play” for New York and other states where Republicans have not won presidential elections for years.

“One of the other things I’m going to do — and I may be foolish in doing it — is I’m going to make a heavy play for New York, heavy play for New Jersey, heavy play for Virginia, heavy play for New Mexico, and a heavy play for a state that hasn’t been won in years, Minnesota,” Trump said in the more than two-hour-long interview at his luxurious seaside Mar-a-Lago resort.

“But we’re going to do these other states too, and it will be a heavy move,” Trump added. “I may rent Madison Square Garden, and that’s the belly of the beast, right?”

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