Poll: Trump, Lake Lead Democrats in Arizona in Hypothetical Match-Ups

MESA, ARIZONA - OCTOBER 09: Former U.S. President Donald Trump (L) embraces Arizona Republ
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Former President Donald Trump and Republican Senate candidate Kari Lake both lead their Democrat opponents in hypothetical general election races in Arizona, according to a poll conducted for Lake’s campaign.

The JL Partners poll, outlined in a memo published by Punchbowl News on Friday, finds that 45 percent of the likely voter respondents sampled would back Trump in a head-to-head race against President Joe Biden, who takes 41 percent support. Another ten percent would back someone else, while four percent would be undecided under this scenario.

Trump corrals a stronger percentage of GOP support (90 percent) than Biden does Democrat support (86 percent). He also holds a two-point lead with Latinos and a ten-point lead with whites. However, Biden has a double-digit edge over Trump with independents as they register at 46 percent and 36 percent, respectively.

Arizona narrowly went blue for Biden in 2020 after Trump carried the state in the 2016 general election against Hillary Clinton. The poll comes on the heels of a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll published Wednesday that found Trump leading Biden 47-44 in a two-way race in the Grand Canyon State, as Breitbart News noted.

Meanwhile, Lake holds narrow edges in a hypothetical head-to-head race for U.S. Senate with Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ), and when they are pitted against Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ) in a three-way contest.

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Matt Perdie / Breitbart News

In a two-person race, Lake narrowly leads Gallego 46 percent to 44 percent, while 9 percent of respondents are undecided. Gallego has a slight advantage among independents at 45 percent to 43 percent.

Interestingly, Lake, who came within two-thirds of a percentage point of winning the governorship in 2022, “retains the support of 93% of her 2022 supporters,” the memo states. However, Gallego only has the backing of 88 percent of those who supported Gov. Katie Hobbs (D-AZ), Lake’s opponent in the midterm election.

When the field is expanded to include Sinema, who has not yet declared if she is running for reelection, Lake sits in first place with a one-point lead. She has the backing of 40 percent of respondents, while 39 percent go for Gallego, and 13 percent would vote for Sinema. Another eight percent are undecided.

In other words, a potential reelection bid from Sinema – who defected from the Democrat Party in December 2022 – would marginally hurt Lake, according to the poll.

Though a sample size, margin of error, and field dates were not noted in the polling memo, the reputable polling aggregating account on X, @IAPolls2022,  reports the poll was conducted for Lake’s campaign from January 29-31 among 500 respondents. Lake’s campaign reshared @IAPolls2022’s post about the survey.


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