Poll: Donald Trump Leads Biden, Third Party Opponents in 6 of 7 Key Swing States

A collage of former President Donald Trump surrounded by Democrat, independent, and Green
AP: Alex Brandon, Matt Rourke // Getty: Frederick M. Brown, Michael M. Santiago
Nick Gilbertson

Former President Donald Trump leads President Joe Biden and the rest of his likely general election opponents in six of seven critical swing states, according to a Morning Consult/Bloomberg News poll.

The poll, released Tuesday, shows Trump ahead of Biden and third-party candidates in every swing state except for Michigan, where the 45th and 46th presidents tie. While Trump has an advantage over Biden in the larger field, the margins tighten in a hypothetical head-to-head race without third-party candidates, with Biden narrowly leading in one state.

ARIZONA:

Trump leads Biden in both a five-way race and a two-way race in Arizona, according to the poll. Trump takes first place in the crowded field with 43 percent of support, followed by Biden at 37 percent.

Independent Presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s 12 percent is good enough for third place, while independent Cornel West and the Green Party’s Jill Stein take two percent and one percent, respectively. Another four percent of respondents are unsure who they will back, and one percent would not vote.

When Trump is pitted against just Biden in a two-way race in the Grand Canyon State, Trump leads 48 percent to 43 percent. Three percent of respondents would not vote, and five percent are undecided.

The poll sampled 796 registered voters from March 8 to 14, and the state’s margin of error (MOE) is ± three percentage points.

Trump carried Arizona in 2016 over twice-failed presidential candidate Hillary Clinton by 3.5 percentage points before Biden narrowly won it in 2020 by .3 percent.

GEORGIA:

In Georgia—another state that went red for Trump in 2016 and blue for Biden in 2020—Trump holds a seven-point lead over Biden in both a crowded field and a head-to-head matchup.

In the five-way race, Trump is in front with 45 percent of support to Biden’s 38 percent, while Kennedy follows with 7 percent. From there, West takes two percent, Stein fails to get on the board, and four percent of respondents are undecided.

In a head-to-head matchup, Trump leads Biden 49 percent to 42 percent. Five percent are unsure who they would back, and four percent would not vote.

The survey sampled 788 registered Georgia voters between March 8 and 12; the MOE is ± three percent.

MICHIGAN

Trump and Biden are deadlocked in both variations of the Michigan race. They each garnered 40 percent support in the contest versus third-party candidates. Kennedy failed to crack double digits with nine percent, while West took three percent and two percent back Stein.

Five percent of respondents are undecided, while two percent would vote for someone else or not participate in the election if these were their choices.

With third-party options removed from the field, Biden and Trump each gain five percent support and tie at 45 percent. Four percent would not vote, and seven percent do not know who they would back.

Like Arizona and Georgia, Trump won Michigan in 2016, but Biden carried it in 2020.

Between March 8-12, the Morning Consult/Bloomberg News poll sampled 698 registered voters in the Wolverine State. The MOE is ± four percent.

NEVADA:

Polling out of the Silver State, which voted Democrat in the 2016 and 2020 elections, shows Trump leading in both race formats, though third-party candidates help widen the margin against Biden.

In a race with Kennedy, Stein, and West in the mix, Trump is in first place with 42 percent, and Biden registers at 36 percent. Eleven percent of respondents back Kennedy, while West and Stein tie at one percent. Two percent of those polled would not vote if these are their options, and seven percent are undecided.

Trump’s lead narrows to two percentage points with Biden as his only opponent. Trump takes 46 percent, while 44 percent support Biden. Six percent of voters are up for grabs, and four percent would sit the election out.

The smaller sample of 447 registered voters in Nevada carries a ± 5 percent MOE. The samples were taken from March 8-15.

NORTH CAROLINA

The crowded race in North Carolina shows Trump leading the pack at 45 percent. Biden follows at 39 percent, while Kennedy appeals to 7 percent of voters. West takes one percent, while Stein fails to secure a percent of support. Another three percent of poll participants do not plan to vote if these are their options, and four percent are unsure who they would vote for.

Trump maintains his six-point advantage over Biden with Kennedy, West, and Stein removed from the field. He commands 49 percent of the vote to Biden’s 43 percent. Four percent of the remaining respondents are undecided, and four percent would refuse to vote.

The March 8-12 poll includes samples from 699 registered voters in the Tar Heel State. The MOE is ± four percent.

PENNSYLVANIA

As is the case in Nevada, a crowded field seems to benefit Trump in Pennsylvania compared to a head-to-head matchup with Biden, according to the polling data.

The five-way contest shows Trump in front with 44 percent, while Biden comes in second at 38 percent, and Kennedy follows at 7 percent. Stein takes one point of support, while West fails to get on the board. Seven percent of respondents did not have an opinion, while one percent would not vote if these are the candidates.

The third-party candidates harm Biden in Pennsylvania, considering he gains seven percent when they are removed from the field, while Trump only gains one percent. This works out to be a tie between the 45th and 46th presidents as they land at 45 percent of support. Four percent would not vote in a Biden versus Trump rematch, and six percent are up for grabs.

Morning Consult and Bloomberg polled 807 registered Pennsylvania voters from March 8-12; the MOE is ± 3 percent.

WISCONSIN:

Lastly, there is the Wisconsin poll, which showed Trump narrowly leading the deeper field and Biden with a slight edge on Trump in a two-candidate race. Of the Badger State respondents polled, 41 percent back Trump, 39 percent support Biden, and 10 percent would vote for Kennedy Jr. West and Stein round out the field with one percent each. Five percent are undecided, and one percent would not participate in the election.

In a head-to-head race, Biden leads Trump 46 percent to 45 percent. Five percent would not vote, and four percent have not made up their minds.

This poll included responses from 697 registered voters in the Badger State collected from March 8-14. The MOE is ± four percentage points.

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