Polls keep interfering with the media’s rush to declare Obama the winner of the November election. Today, Rasmussen’s tracking poll finds Romney reclaiming a 1-point lead over the President, erasing any bounce Obama received from the DNC Convention. Rasmussen, which was named the most accurate poll of 2008, uses a Likely Voter (LV) screen that is far more reflective of the electorate than other polls. Most other media polls may as well be surveying the land of unicorns and pixie dust.
The media and, sadly, many conservative are falling into the trap of relying on media polls which are heavily skewed towards Democrats. Most polls are using samples that seek to replicate the 2008 electorate. That Obama leads in such polls is hardly surprising. What most pundits are missing is that the electorate WILL NOT look anything like 2008.
Rasmussen’s survey today confirms what we have seen in other polls; GOP voters are more enthusiastic about voting than Democrat voters. 49% of GOP voters are following the race on a daily basis. Just 42% of Democrats register the same interest. Romney also leads among GOP voters by a large margin than Obama leads among Democrats. Indeed, 18% of white Democrats support Romney.
Rasmussen uses a 3-day rolling average, so all of these numbers come after the DNC convention. Gallup, on the other hand, uses a 7-day rolling average and polls the wider universe of Registered Voters (RV). As a result, Gallup’s numbers still reflect impressions of the DNC convention while it was underway. Expect Obama’s lead in the Gallup poll to start coming down over the coming days.
The media is using the polls as an active part of their campaign narrative. That they have to skew the polls so heavily in favor of Democrats to show Obama with the lead is telling. This isn’t reporting, its framing. The 2008 election and most of the media polls were delivered by an electorate that was D+7. On current enthusiasm trends, the electorate will be evenly split or have a slight R advantage.
If that is the case the media may be right that the election is over. Its just that Romney will be the next President.
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